Archive for February, 2011

So I wanted to do a post where I will evaluate all of the players that were traded and tell you what to expect their value to be the last couple weeks of the fantasy season. I will not be commenting on the players who are on the teams that received new players (i.e. Amare, Serge Ibaka, JR Smith). This trade deadline was probably one of the best, in terms of big names moving, there has been in a while. Names such as Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Gerald Wallace, and Kendrick Perkins were all moved and that wasn’t all of them. Now on to what these players should give you for the remainder of the season.

Deron Williams (NJN-PG)-D Will has shot poorly his first two games, but he has also avg 14.5 ast. I don’t see that number being that high the rest of the way, but I could see 11. If that is the case he could pass Rondo as the best ast guy in fantasy b-ball. He needs to get his fg% back around 45% otherwise he will hurt just as much as he helps. He rebounds well for a PG and gets some 3’s and stls. His value sees a slight boost because Avery will let him do what he wants.

Devin Harris (Uta-PG)– I think Harris can flourish in Utah. He will have the ability to run a system that works, and he showed signs the last month that showed he was doing better. He could avg over 8 ast over the last 5 weeks. He needs to stay out of foul trouble and get those stl numbers going again, and he could be the reason some people make a deep playoff run.

Derrick Favors (Uta-PF)-Since Utah made this trade I think they are going to try to get Favors some min. He will get more min if the Jazz keep falling, or if the front-court of the Jazz sees some injuries. He will see 16-20 if the Jazz stay in contention, and who knows how many he could see if they don’t. He shows signs of being a high % scorer. But as of know he doesn’t really do anything else. With min expect good fg%, double-double, and 1.5 blks.

Carmelo Anthony (NYK-SF, PF)-At first I thought Melo’s value was going to be the same, but then I looked at the Knicks and they are going to need him to do a huge bulk of the scoring. His scoring could remain at 28+ the remainder of the season. He still won’t give you much in the D categories, but if he gets you 28 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, and shoots 45% from the field than that is great from the PF position. Melo will play better the last 5 weeks of the season than he did the first 15!

Chauncey Billups (NYK-PG)-Chauncey hasn’t been a high ast guy the last four years, so don’t expect his number to get around 10 with D’Antoni. I do see it getting a bump from 5 to about 7-8. Which that is a big increase if you have him. He seems to be playing well so far with the Knicks. He is the third scoring option in New York so his scoring may rise by a point or so two. His value gets a slight boost thanks to this trade.

Shelden Williams & Ronaldo Balkman (NYK PF)-Neither of these guys will see the floor much unless Amare or Turiaf get hurt rr get in heavy foul trouble in games. So neither are worth adding, Williams will probably get more min than Balkman so deeper leagues may consider him.

Wilson Chandler (Den-SF, PF)-I think Chandler and JR will be about the same thing in Denver. They are streaky shooters who love to shoot. If Chandler is getting hot he will get min. If he struggles some he will get less. He should maintain his current season production; .463 fg%, .806 ft%, 1.7 3’s, 16.5 pts, 6 reb, 1.5 ast, 1 stl, 1.5 blk, and 1.5 to.

Danillo Gallinari (Den-SF)-DG has played good in his first two games with the nuggets. He is the starting 3 in Denver which means he will get min. He will probably be pretty much the same guy he was in NY with the exception of getting more chances. He will make 3’s, shoot well from the charity stripe, and not make many mistakes. If he rebounds like he did in his first 2 games with the Nuggets 6.5 then his value is good from the SF position. I guess I think his value gets a slight boost.

Raymond Felton (Den-PG, SG)-I think Felton’s value takes a hit. He isn’t going to be the starter unless Lawson gets hurt or is playing horribly. He will still get plenty of min, and will have some big nights. But his fg% has been weak the last month and a half and that won’t change. His ast numbers will probably go from 9 to about 6-7. He will still make some 3’s and get you some stls. I think he will be useful but I can’t see how he will be a top 50 player the rest of the season.

Gerald Wallace (Por-SF, PF)-I don’t like the way he fits with the other players on the Trail Blazers, but he will still get plenty of min (probably 30+). So knowing that you can expect 15 pts, 8 reb, and close to 3.5 stl+blk. So he still will maintain good value, and could get a 2nd wind since he will be competing for the playoffs.

Joel Przybilla (Cha-C)-Przybilla’s opening debut wasn’t very good. He had 4 fouls in only 14 min (he was guarding Dwight). So he probably won’t be in foul trouble that quickly in other contests. The last several seasons when Przy gets 20-26 min. He can get good numbers in Reb, and Blk. He won’t be worth an add in a 10 team or less league. But he could be valuable in deeper leagues.

Dante Cunningham (Cha-SF, PF)-Cunningham will be battling for reserve minutes so as of now he isn’t worth adding. However since he is young (23) he could see increased min if the Bobcats fall out of contention for the playoffs. In his brief stints on the floor he looks to be close to a double-double, and adds some stls. But that would be if he is getting 30 min a game.

I’ll post part 2 of the trade deadline guys tomorrow. If you disagree with what I think will happen with some of these guys let me know and make any predictions of your own.

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I hate closers (had to get that out there). I think they are a very fickle position, and usually have guys who have 2 or 3 great years than implode and can’t do a thing. For every Trevor Hoffman there seems to be three John Rockers. So don’t spend high draft picks on closers people. They usually help in only one category Saves! Now for H2H leagues their value might be a little higher because you could lockdown that category every week and focus on winning 5 others and you win.

1) Carlos Marmol (ChC-RP)-I put Marmol #1 because he has the best stuff of any of the other closers. This year’s team should be a little better, which should mean more chances for Marmol to show his stuff. He gives you great K numbers as a closer, and kept his WHIP and ERA low last year.

2011 prediction: 44 sv, 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 134 K

2) Brian Wilson (SF-RP)– Wilson creeps me out a little, but he is a good closer, his numbers have gotten better each season since he got the job in 2008. I think his numbers will be pretty much the same as last year.

2011 prediction: 46 sv, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 86 K

3) Joakim Soria (KC-RP)– Soria has been one of the most consistent closers over the last four years. Sub 2.5 ERA, sub 1.13 WHIP, and over 66 K. You get a great closer in Soria just doesn’t get enough opportunities to actually record saves.

2011 prediction: 41 sv, 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 75 K

4) Neftali Feliz (Tex-RP)-Neftali might have the 2nd most dangerous stuff from this position, but there is speculation that he might make the jump to the starting rotation. If he does stay at the closer spot he will bring in good K numbers and will have chances to close out games (he set a rookie record for saves last year).

2011 prediction: 43 sv, 2.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 79 K

5) Heath Bell (SD-RP)- Bell has filled in nicely for the Padres since Hoffman’s departure. Has 40+ saves both years, and under 2.7 ERA. His WHIP has been relatively high during his career. But he doesn’t blow his chances too often when he is in there.

2011 prediction: 44 sv, 2.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 81 K

6) Mariano Rivera (NYY-RP)-Mo is one of the best closers in history and is the best postseason closer in history. However he is getting old (41), his so/9 went down and bb/9 went up. I think he will still be a good closer this year, but I see this being his last good one for fantasy owners.

2011 prediction: 34 sv, 2.33 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 47 K

7) Jonathan Papelbon (Bos-RP)-Paps has been a reliable closer since he got the job in 2006. But the last two years have seen his ERA and WHIP go up. Hitters may be figuring out Papelbon or he may be losing some of his edge on the other side of 30. He will still be a top 10 closer come season’s end.

2011 prediction: 41 sv, 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 75 K

8) Francisco Rodriguez (NYM-RP)-K-rod used to be everyones choice for best closer, but when he moved to the Mets he hasn’t been the same (no surprise there). He had some off the field issues which ended his 2010 campaign early. I can see him coming out to prove he isn’t done being a dominant closer this year.

2011 prediction: 40 sv, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 72 K

9) JJ Putz (Ari-RP)– In 06 Putz came out of nowhere for the Mariners and in 07 built on that success, but in 08 things turned south. He could no longer get people out as easily and went from the M’s to the Mets to the White Sox. He seemed to regain his confidence in Chi town and now is getting the closer role for the D-backs.

2011 prediction: 37 sv, 2.96 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 66 K

10) Jonathan Broxton (LAD-RP)– Broxton looked to be the next big armed closer after his stellar 2009 season. But then his velocity dipped last year, and couldn’t command his stuff (WHIP 1.47). I think since he is young (27) he will find his way back to being a good closer. That is no guarantee just faith in the person, he could be another flash in the pan closer. (wouldn’t be the first or the last).

2011 prediction: 36 sv, 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 91 K

11) Andrew Bailey (Oak-RP)-Bailey has some potential as a low WHIP/ERA guy, and even a high K rate, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of opportunities to get saves. He only pitched in 47 games last year. If he pitches in 70 games like most of the other closers on this list he could be a good bargain.

2011 prediction: 32 sv, 1.75 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 80 K

12) John Axford (Mil-RP)-Axford filled in great for Hoffman as the Brewer closer last season. This year the spot will be his. He has his moments where he lacks control but he generally found a way out of the trouble. He should put up good closer numbers as the full time guy.

2011 prediction: 34 sv, 2.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 90 K

13) Brad Lidge (Phi-RP)-Brad Lidge has had monster years and horrible years. Last season he had moments of both, and he still ended with good numbers. He seems to be flying under the radar considering the situation he is in. Philly is going to win a lot of games this season which means Lidge could have lots of chances to close it out.

2011 prediction: 35 sv, 2.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 74 K

14) Jose Valverde (Det-RP)-Jose has closed enough in his career that you know what you are getting his career averages are, 30 sv, 3.15 era, 1.17 whip, 68 k. So nothing great in any category but he usually hasn’t been to far off those numbers.

2011 prediction: 31 sv, 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 64 K

15) Chris Perez (Cle-RP)-Perez was a top prospect for the Cards at one point, but now he is the closer for the Indians. He has good stuff and has shown good control. His only downfall has been he can give up bombs to often, which affects his ERA. He his only 25 and is really only in his 3rd year as a pitcher in the pros. Could have a good year for the probably bad Indians.

2011 prediction: 30 sv, 2.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 71 K

16) Huston Street (Col-RP)-I thought Huston was a lot older than he is(27). Knowing that he still has a bright future. He has had some good seasons, but he has had some injury riddled seasons too. He is on a pretty good team so he will have the chance to close some games out.

2011 prediction: 32 sv, 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 65 K

17) Drew Storen (Was-RP)-Drew Storen enters the year as a closer and fared pretty well there during his short trail last year. He is still a little of an unknown because he is new to the organization. He has a pretty good k/9, bb/9, and hr/9, but his h/9 is a little high. So his WHIP may not be the best.

2011 prediction: 29 sv, 3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K

18) Francisco Cordero (Cin-RP)-Cordero is 36 this year, so age may be a factor. However his last 4 seasons were much better than the 2 before that. He is in a relatively weak NL Central, and the Reds will probably be good offensively again this season. So if Cordero does poorly it won’t be because of his set up.

2011 prediction: 38 sv, 3.41 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 62 K

19) Joe Nathan (Min-RP)-Nathan was one of the most reliable closers from 2004-2009. But he had to undergo tommy john early last year. It appears that he may be ready for the season opener or at the latest late April. If he returns to his usual self he will be an absolute steal in your draft.

2011 prediction: 32 sv, 2.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 79 K

20) Ryan Franklin (Stl-RP)-Franklin is old (37), doesn’t have a dominant pitch that strikes fear in opposing hitters, and doesn’t really have that good of control either. Despite all of those things he continues to be a good closer for the Cardinals. His leash will probably be shorter this year then in the past, so if he has a couple of bad outings in a row be ready to flip him for the next in line.

2011 prediction: 30 sv, 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 43 K

My Rankings

ESPN Rankings

Yahoo! Rankings

CBS Sports

Carlos Marmol

6

1

4

Brian Wilson

1

3

1

Joakim Soria

4

5

6

Neftali Feliz

5

4

2

Heath Bell

2

6

3

Mariano Rivera

3

2

7

Jonathan Papelbon

8

7

10

Francisco Rodriguez

7

9

14

JJ Putz

10

13

5

Jonathan Broxton

9

12

11

Andrew Bailey

11

8

12

John Axford

13

11

13

Brad Lidge

23

19

8

Jose Valverde

15

10

20

Chris Perez

12

14

19

Huston Street

14

15

9

Drew Storen

16

16

24

Francisco Cordero

17

17

17

Joe Nathan

19

31

26

Ryan Franklin

18

21

21

If you have any questions or disagreements regarding my RP rankings leave a comment. Also if you have any bold predictions for the 2011 season let me know. I’m getting very excited for the arrival of fantasy baseball. I will be doing weekly posts during the year on players to watch for, potential waiver gems, and just normal fantasy stuff. I am starting a H2H keeper league on Yahoo if you are interested leave a comment with your e-mail and you can take on the Hombre. Hope you have enjoyed the rankings.

I only did the top 25 SP since there are way too many to rank top 100 and I’m not getting paid to do this ;). SP are a dime a dozen especially once you get out of the top 10. Every year there are 3 or 4 guys that come out of nowhere so don’t get too comfortable with the SP you draft. It is always nice to have an ace on your team, but it isn’t necessary to have one to win/compete in most leagues. It was considered to be the year of the pitcher last year, and that trend may continue into this year. I hope this list is helpful for you.

1) Roy Halladay (Phi-SP)-Roy Halladay is easily the #1 SP. He is a great command guy, with great stuff. That combo is very rare. Since 2005 his highest ERA was 3.71 and in that same span his highest WHIP was 1.23. Those being his worst still make him a top 15-20 SP.

2011 prediction: 22 W, 2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 210 K

2)   Felix Hernadez (Sea-SP)-King Felix is probably the best pitcher in baseball in terms of age, stuff, and dependability. This will be his 7th full season in the Majors and he is only 25! He improved his command last year which helped his WHIP. His struggles in May and June made his season values seem worse than they were.

2011 prediction: 16 W, 2.35 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 216 K

3)   Tim Lincecum (SF-SP)-Lincecum struggled at times last season and had a career worse ERA. But he still was among the league leaders in K’s, and IP. So he should do a little better than last year. His HR allowed and BB were up though so that could be concerning.

2011 prediction: 17 W, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 240 K

4)   Adam Wainwright (StL-SP)-Wainwright has finally come to be the ace the Cardinals (and myself) hoped he would be. If he didn’t finish the year with 4 straight mediocre games and poor run support he would have won the Cy Young. He has command, will get you a high amount of K’s. He is a stud in roto and H2H leagues. (NOTE: A report has just been released that Waino may need Tommy John surgery, monitor the situation if he has to go under the knife he isn’t worth owning this year.)

2011 prediction: 19 W, 2.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 209 K surgery season: 0 W, n/a ERA, n/a WHIP, 0K

5)   Cliff Lee (Phi-SP)-Cliff Lee is a dominant pitcher, but he seems to go through a couple of games where he doesn’t show up. That is why he is 5th if he pitches every game like it is the playoffs he would be #1.

2011 prediction: 18 W, 3.11 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 176 K

6)   CC Sabathia (NYY-SP)-CC had a terrible end of May and beginning June last year, but his last three months he was one of if not the best SP in the Majors. His WHIP has never been that low so that is his weakest category. He may opt out of his contract after the season so CONTRACT YEAR.

2011 prediction: 19 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 195 K

7)   Jon Lester (Bos-SP)-Lester improved on every category last year, and finished with a great season. He is the ace of the Bos rotation, and has a great offense behind him. This will probably give him a boost in W’s but I could see him losing focus at times because he will have 8-1 leads in the 4th.

2011 prediction: 21 W, 3.29 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 218 K

8)   Josh Johnson (Fla-SP)-Johnson showed signs of being a true ace. If he got a little run support he would have easily been an 17 game winner. His team should help his case this year, but his numbers won’t be quite as great.

2011 prediction: 16 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 183 K

9)   Zack Greinke (Mil-SP)-Greinke is two years removed from being a Cy Young winner, and his stats were good but not great last year. He is in a easier hitting division than last season, and gets to face a pitcher almost every start. He should be focused and ready to show 2009 wasn’t a fluke.

2011 prediction: 17 W, 3.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 204 K

10)   Clayton Kershaw (LAD-SP)-Kershaw is entering his 4th season as a big league pitcher, and really only his 3rd as a full time guy. His numbers improved in every category last season, and the stats say that will probably happen again.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 208 K

11)   Justin Verlander (Det-SP)-Verlander is a workhorse logging over 867 IN the last 4 seasons. So he will be on the mound every start for you and has the chance to get you huge K numbers. He gives up HR on occasion and can walk too many guys at times. Great pickup for H2H because of K numbers.

2011 prediction: 18 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 228 K

12)   Ubaldo Jimenez (Col-SP)-I think we all hope Ubaldo will be the dominant pitcher we saw the first half of last season (unless you are a dodger, padres, giants, d-backs fan). But he did slow down a lot in the 2nd half last season (only 4 w, era near 4, and 1.29 Whip). If he can just average those two personalities this season he will end with another solid year.

2011 prediction: 18 W, 3.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 205 K

13)   Chris Carpenter (StL-SP)-Carp is getting older 35, but in the last 10 years pitchers who have reached 35 seem to hit a new prime. So his age shouldn’t slow him down. He does have a history of the injury bug, but when he plays he is one of the best in baseball.

2011 prediction: 16 W, 2.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 167 K

14)   Dan Haren (LAA-SP)-Haren has been a great fantasy option since 2007 until last year hit. He just didn’t look the same in the first two months of the season. He had a strong last two months with the Angels so he could be a great bounce-back guy.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 207 K

15)   Tommy Hanson (Atl-SP)-Hanson has been a solid pitcher since arriving on the scene in 2009. He only turns 25 this season. So it is his 2nd full season as a starter. His SO/9 went down and his H/9 went up. Some of that was due to bad luck. I think he will make big strides this season to be the future ace for the Braves.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 178 K

16)   David Price (TB-SP)-Price is the former #1 overall pick, so he has great expectations. He more than lived up to those last year. His offense will be worse this year than in the past which will hurt his W’s and his 2nd half was a showed signs of a tired arm. He is a high upside type guy, but don’t be surprised if his numbers are slightly worse this year.

2011 prediction: 17 W, 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 197 K

17)   Matt Latos (SD-SP)-Latos is young (24) and on the rise. He finished his first full big league year with a sub 1.1 whip, and sub 3 era. Both might be because of a pitcher friendly park. He did post more K’s and W on the road, so he didn’t pitch poorly on the road just a little worse. His 2nd full season could be a great one, but I’m expecting some growing pains like most 2nd year guys have.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 2.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 194 K

18)   Jered Weaver (LAA-SP)-Weaver posted his best ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) since his rookie season. So it could mean one of two things turned the corner and is a boderline ace, or just had luck on his side. It looks like it is a little of both from the numbers.

2011 prediction: 14 W, 3.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 201 K

19)   Cole Hamels (Phi-SP)-Cole has never been a fantasy stud his lowest WHIP (1.08) was in 08, lowest ERA (3.06) and highest K’s (211) was in 2010, and his highest W mark was in 07 (16). So he has never had one stellar year, but he is consistent, and doesn’t kill you in any category.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.34 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 195 K

20)   Matt Cain (SF-SP)-Matt Cain seemed to have hit a stride last August-October last year, and since he will only be 26. He may have finally learned how to be a pitcher. He had a career low WHIP and still mantianed a relatively high K mark (177). I can’t see the run support being great, but he plays in a good pitcher’s park.

2011 prediction: 13 W, 3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 181 K

21)   Roy Oswalt (Phi-SP)-Roy used to be a fantasy ace, know he is just a good fantasy starter. He turns 33 this year, and will have a full season where he should be pitching with full focus. If he pitches like he did in his 12 starts with the Phillies last year, he will be a top 5 pitcher to end the year. I don’t see him doing that well.

2011 prediction: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 176 K

22)   Yovani Gallardo (Mil-SP)-Yovani is no longer the ace for the Brewers, with Marcum and Greinke coming to the Brew Crew this offseason I see a revitalized Gallardo. He strikes out a lot of guys but gives up his share of hits. High K not so good WHIP guy.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 207 K

23)   Francisco Liriano (Min-SP)-Liriano looked similar to the guy who pitched lights out in 2006. His K numbers were high his WHIP was dropping, and he wasn’t getting hit as much. I see this strong year building his confidence and this year will be what we will see from here on out.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 198 K

24)   Max Scherzer (Det-SP)-Scherzer turns 26 and is entering his 3rd full year as a big league starter. He has a crazy delivery (which could mean injury) but he can strike people out. His control can be a little off at times, so he won’t post great numbers in ERA or WHIP.

2011 prediction: 15 W, 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 185 K

25)   Chad Billingsley (LAD-SP)-Billingsley’s h/9, bb/9, hr/9 were all lower last season than in previous years. But his overall numbers weren’t that good. That usually means he had some rough luck either by his run support or his defense. He is still a young guy (26) and can eat up innings. I expect him to build on his numbers from last year and be a steal later in the draft.

2011 prediction: 14 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 179 K

My Rankings ESPN Rankings Yahoo! Rankings CBS Sports
Roy Halladay

1

1

1

Felix Hernadez

2

3

2

Tim Lincecum

3

2

4

Adam Wainwright

6

4

3

Cliff Lee

4

5

5

CC Sabathia

7

11

7

Jon Lester

5

8

8

Josh Johnson

18

9

6

Zack Greinke

9

7

15

Clayton Kershaw

8

6

16

Justin Verlander

11

13

12

Ubaldo Jimenez

13

10

10

Chris Carpenter

12

24

13

Dan Haren

14

20

9

Tommy Hanson

10

15

20

David Price

21

12

18

Matt Latos

15

17

21

Jered Weaver

16

19

17

Cole Hamels

17

14

11

Matt Cain

19

21

19

Roy Oswalt

20

22

22

Yovani Gallardo

22

16

23

Francisco Liriano

23

18

14

Max Scherzer

24

23

27

Chad Billingsley

26

27

28

The final position ranking will be tomorrow. If you have any questions or disagreements regarding my rankings leave a comment. Leave any predictions you have for a starter this year. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you can stay updated throughout the fantasy season!