Archive for May, 2011

If you know me at all you would know that I love trading in fantasy sports. I will offer trades to people the minute after the draft is over all the way up to the final minute before the “trade deadline” hits. Something about being able to change the look of your team is just fun for me. However I usually try to win my trade, in terms of value, but if a person is willing to talk through what they want, why they want a certain player I own, or just keep the lines of communication open I am much more willing to do a 50/50 trade. I think we can all agree that when we trade we want the biggest return when we make the deal, and sometimes we see value in different ways. I wrote a post a couple of months ago about the different types of trades, fantasy trading, if you are interested (note: it is written with NBA being the focal point, but the concept of the trades carry over to every sport. For this post I am going to tell you who you should look to trade for and who you should look to ship out.

It's time to put your money on these guys!

-Dan Uggla-Uggla is batting just a measly .180 on the year, and that is with 194 AB on the year. So things have been ugly for him this year. His career low in AVG is .243. So let’s say he ties a career worst in his AVG. That would mean he would bat close to .265 from here on out, and that is to just get to .243 on the year. If you think like me that he will probably get to about .255. Then he would hit around .284. He has had 30+ HR every single season so I don’t see that changing. Fantasy Baseball is a very patient long term game and if you can get a guy who is going to bat .260-.280 the rest of the year with 23+ HR then you would take it…well that is Uggla so go for him.

Shin-Soo Choo-Choo seems to be one of the only players on the Indians roster who isn’t doing everything right, some see that as a bad thing but for fantasy people that should be a good sign of what is to come. His last month has actually been pretty good, .281, 13 r, 3 hr, 12 rbi, 3 sb. So if he can even just meet that over the final four months his season totals would be. 75 r, 17 hr, 60 rbi, 19 sb, .266. I would venture a guess that Choo finishes higher in every category at seasons end. Once the weather gets nicer in Cleveland I think Choo’s bat will help carry the Indians offense to a surprising year.

-Billy Butler-Butler is on 2 of my fantasy teams so this might be wishful thinking. Butler is a guy who has decent numbers across the board in his short career, but his true value was in his batting average. Butler’s OBP is higher right now than in year’s past, he is on pace to set a career low in GIDP, and he is on pace to have almost 100 walks on the year. When players are able to take lots of walks that usually means they are seeing the ball pretty well, and when players can see the ball that means the hits start to come. In Butler’s last 14 days he is hitting over .340. If you need help in the AVG department I think he is a great buy low guy.

-Other notable cash in candidates: Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Troy Tulowitzki

Cash Out (players who have outperformed themselves and should be traded while their value is still really high)

Get big money on these players while you still can

-Asdrubal Cabrera-Cabrera has done some amazing things so far this season. He has already set a career high in HR with 10 (previous season high was 6). He has 7 SB with 0 CS, which puts him on pace for about 26 SB on the year (would be a career high). And is hitting over .300, which he has done only once in his short 4 year career. He might be the next Jose Bautista breakout player, or just another 25 year old player that starts reaching his potential. But I don’t think he can keep this kind of torrid pace. I would shop him around since in the last 14 days he has half of those 10 HR. Get something pretty in return for his monster start.

-Jay Bruce-Bruce had a pretty bad April and then followed it up with a great May. His stats over the last 30 days look like this, .324, 20 r, 10 hr, 26 rbi, 1 sb. That is a great month to have for a team. I do think Bruce has the talent and ability to be a top 25 player, but these type numbers would make him a top 5 player…and I’m not quite ready to put him there yet. I would bet someone in your league loves this guy as much as you do and you could get a top 15 player in return for him, and I would say CASH OUT!

-Matt Joyce-Joyce are the kind of waiver gems that come along and can be great for your team for about 20-40 days (and yes sometimes longer), but after their hot run they usually fade out and return to the player they were before. He is hitting .367 for the year right now, but he hit .275 in the minors for his 6 seasons. So even if he has started to be a better hitter I think it is safe to say his AVG will probably be around .300 or lower by season’s end, which means a poor .272 AVG the rest of the season. He hasn’t been known to be a huge HR guy either in his Minor league career, and he is on pace for about 28 this year (which would be 11 more than his best in the minors and 16 more than in the pros) Cash out while you still can!

-Other notables Michael Brantley, Howie Kendrick, Lance Berkman, Brett Gardner

Sorry I haven’t been posting that much, I have been distracted by my OKC Thunder who just got eliminated last night. So now I can grieve which means I will eat, sleep, and think fantasy baseball. So you can expect my posts to be more consistent over the next 3 months. Subscribe if you like what I have put out, comment if you have any questions or comments regarding fantasy sports, and “like” H2H Hombre on facebook.

So a month of baseball has been played and your fantasy team has gotten enough AB’s and Innings pitched to see a picture of what your team might look like for the year. I know that there are some players who have been horrible that will turn it around some, but you know what those players are probably going to give you. So early May is a good time to evaluate your strengths and weaknesses of your fantasy team. A good way to do that is just go look at the stats of your players (sometimes we can let our hearts get in the way of our heads when it comes to our fantasy team). The stats will tell the story of what your team is and is probably going to be. Once you have identified one or two of the key strengths you have and one or two of the weaknesses you must determine if you are going to try and make the weaknesses less of one or completely give up on those categories and make your strengths and other categories stronger. I tend to lean towards “punting” (giving up) the one or two category that I my team is already bad at and imposing my will in the two or three my team is good at. ¬†With all that said here is some players that you should go for, players you should drop, or just players who should be on your radar.

All-In(players that are performing well and need to be added to your fantasy team)

Melky Cabrera (KC-OF)-Cabrera, like the Royals, has been a surprise this season. Melky has always had his moments where he looked like a quality ball player, but he never could put it together for long periods of time. This season he has been very consistent at the plate, he can give you help in every category right now. His numbers so far for the season are 20 r, 3 hr, 20 rbi, 3 sb, .293 avg. I don’t know if Melky can keep it up over the entire season, but sometimes riding someone’s hot streak is the key to building big leads during the season.

Brennan Boesch (Det-OF)-Boesch has been a bright spot in the Tigers offense so far. He is in a good spot in the order (he has been in the 3 or 5 hole for most of the last 10 games) so he will get lots of good opportunities to drive in runs. In the first month he has produced well in every category. He won’t get you a ton of SBs for the season, but might drive in a lot of runs and score a lot of runs too. This is what Boesch has been able to do so far this season, 19 r, 2 hr, 16 rbi, 3 sb, .318 avg.

Josh Tomlin & Justin Masterson (Cle-SP)-These two guys have been one of the main reasons the Indians are tied for the best team in the majors. Neither guy is going to get you high K numbers, but they have the look of Cliff Lee’s breakout season. They both pound the strikezone and trust their above average defense behind them. They both have pitched 40 innings, have 4+ Wins this year, and neither have above a 1.15 WHIP or a 3 ERA. They can really help your team sustain low WHIP numbers.

Fold(players that are underperforming and you need to just let them live on the waivers)

Ryan Dempster (Chi-SP)-Dempster might turn it around, but sometimes you can’t wait if he is literally helping you in no categories. He always puts up decent K numbers but this season he just can’t get people out, and he keeps giving up crooked innings (aka more than 2 runs an inning). This is what Dempster has done this year, 38 IN, 1 W, 34 K, 8.04 ERA, 1.74 WHIP. I would just let him go to the wayside and grab one of the Indian boys.

Derek Jeter (NYY-SS)-The Captain just isn’t getting the job done anymore. Granted I am biased because I have never liked Jeter. So he may not be a drop now candidate, but his numbers may tell you that he is. His season’s numbers have looked like this in 108 ABs so he has a .250 avg, 0 hr, 0 sb, 14 r, 6 rbi. He got a day off yesterday, and if he continues to not hit he will see those days more frequent.

Clay Bucholz (Bos-SP)-Bucholz has been similar to Dempster this year…bad! He also has the pedigree to turn it around during the season, but like I said earlier don’t let your team fall to far behind early in the year. Bucholz’s numbers have been 33.2 IN, 2 W, 17 K, 4.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. Clay’s ERA won’t drop much because he was really lucky last year in terms of his ERA. He isn’t a high K guy so he relies on guys hitting the ball for outs. He has had trouble with his command this year. He should also be dropped for an Indian boy.

Check(players that are putting up interesting numbers and need to be on your radar)

Justin Smoak (Sea-1B)-Smoak was always supposed to be a big bat in the pros, but he wasn’t able to reach that potential in his short stints in the majors the last two years. Since he returned from some personal days off he has been drilling everything. His last 14 days his numbers look like this, 4 r, 3 hr, 13 rbi, and a .353 avg. He is young so there will be hiccups, but if you have room on your team than he would be a worthy gamble.

Eric Hosmer (KC-1B)-BIG TIME PROSPECT. If you haven’t heard about Hosmer than you didn’t read any preseason prospect articles. He was a first round pick in 2008 (good pedigree), last year in the minors he hit .338, 20 hr, and 16 sb. He was hitting over .400 in AAA to start the year, so KC couldn’t wait to get another big bat in their already surprising lineup.

Nate McLouth (Atl-OF)-McLouth has been a fantasy darling and a fantasy bum over the last several years. He has the potential to be a 20/20 guy, but he can also fight the mendoza line. He has looked comfortable this season at the plate batting over .275. He scores lots of runs batting at the top of a potent ATL offense (or what will be a potent offense over the entire season) this season he already has 21 r. High r guys are harder to find than you think so get them if you can.

Leave any questions that you might have for your fantasy team and I will address them in my next post. Don’t forget to like the Hombre on facebook. Good luck to all of you this month.