Let the Baseball Trade Gates Open!

Posted: May 26, 2011 in Fantasy Baseball
Tags: , , , , , , ,

If you know me at all you would know that I love trading in fantasy sports. I will offer trades to people the minute after the draft is over all the way up to the final minute before the “trade deadline” hits. Something about being able to change the look of your team is just fun for me. However I usually try to win my trade, in terms of value, but if a person is willing to talk through what they want, why they want a certain player I own, or just keep the lines of communication open I am much more willing to do a 50/50 trade. I think we can all agree that when we trade we want the biggest return when we make the deal, and sometimes we see value in different ways. I wrote a post a couple of months ago about the different types of trades, fantasy trading, if you are interested (note: it is written with NBA being the focal point, but the concept of the trades carry over to every sport. For this post I am going to tell you who you should look to trade for and who you should look to ship out.

It's time to put your money on these guys!

-Dan Uggla-Uggla is batting just a measly .180 on the year, and that is with 194 AB on the year. So things have been ugly for him this year. His career low in AVG is .243. So let’s say he ties a career worst in his AVG. That would mean he would bat close to .265 from here on out, and that is to just get to .243 on the year. If you think like me that he will probably get to about .255. Then he would hit around .284. He has had 30+ HR every single season so I don’t see that changing. Fantasy Baseball is a very patient long term game and if you can get a guy who is going to bat .260-.280 the rest of the year with 23+ HR then you would take it…well that is Uggla so go for him.

Shin-Soo Choo-Choo seems to be one of the only players on the Indians roster who isn’t doing everything right, some see that as a bad thing but for fantasy people that should be a good sign of what is to come. His last month has actually been pretty good, .281, 13 r, 3 hr, 12 rbi, 3 sb. So if he can even just meet that over the final four months his season totals would be. 75 r, 17 hr, 60 rbi, 19 sb, .266. I would venture a guess that Choo finishes higher in every category at seasons end. Once the weather gets nicer in Cleveland I think Choo’s bat will help carry the Indians offense to a surprising year.

-Billy Butler-Butler is on 2 of my fantasy teams so this might be wishful thinking. Butler is a guy who has decent numbers across the board in his short career, but his true value was in his batting average. Butler’s OBP is higher right now than in year’s past, he is on pace to set a career low in GIDP, and he is on pace to have almost 100 walks on the year. When players are able to take lots of walks that usually means they are seeing the ball pretty well, and when players can see the ball that means the hits start to come. In Butler’s last 14 days he is hitting over .340. If you need help in the AVG department I think he is a great buy low guy.

-Other notable cash in candidates: Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Troy Tulowitzki

Cash Out (players who have outperformed themselves and should be traded while their value is still really high)

Get big money on these players while you still can

-Asdrubal Cabrera-Cabrera has done some amazing things so far this season. He has already set a career high in HR with 10 (previous season high was 6). He has 7 SB with 0 CS, which puts him on pace for about 26 SB on the year (would be a career high). And is hitting over .300, which he has done only once in his short 4 year career. He might be the next Jose Bautista breakout player, or just another 25 year old player that starts reaching his potential. But I don’t think he can keep this kind of torrid pace. I would shop him around since in the last 14 days he has half of those 10 HR. Get something pretty in return for his monster start.

-Jay Bruce-Bruce had a pretty bad April and then followed it up with a great May. His stats over the last 30 days look like this, .324, 20 r, 10 hr, 26 rbi, 1 sb. That is a great month to have for a team. I do think Bruce has the talent and ability to be a top 25 player, but these type numbers would make him a top 5 player…and I’m not quite ready to put him there yet. I would bet someone in your league loves this guy as much as you do and you could get a top 15 player in return for him, and I would say CASH OUT!

-Matt Joyce-Joyce are the kind of waiver gems that come along and can be great for your team for about 20-40 days (and yes sometimes longer), but after their hot run they usually fade out and return to the player they were before. He is hitting .367 for the year right now, but he hit .275 in the minors for his 6 seasons. So even if he has started to be a better hitter I think it is safe to say his AVG will probably be around .300 or lower by season’s end, which means a poor .272 AVG the rest of the season. He hasn’t been known to be a huge HR guy either in his Minor league career, and he is on pace for about 28 this year (which would be 11 more than his best in the minors and 16 more than in the pros) Cash out while you still can!

-Other notables Michael Brantley, Howie Kendrick, Lance Berkman, Brett Gardner

Sorry I haven’t been posting that much, I have been distracted by my OKC Thunder who just got eliminated last night. So now I can grieve which means I will eat, sleep, and think fantasy baseball. So you can expect my posts to be more consistent over the next 3 months. Subscribe if you like what I have put out, comment if you have any questions or comments regarding fantasy sports, and “like” H2H Hombre on facebook.

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Comments
  1. Nate says:

    Solid. I have to agree with you about Uggla. The guy will come around and is notorious for having really awful months, followed by really outstanding ones.

    I have been lucky enough to have Asdrubal as my SS in my main money league and, while I do agree with your assessment of him, I just don’t think I can bring myself to trade him. I’ve always been a big fan of his and to see him raking across the board has been refreshing. I know dealing him would be smart, but I guess the wins he’s given me make me stupid.

    • H2H Hombre says:

      Yea Nate I know what you mean about having someone when they are on the torrid pace. It is always hard to deal them because you now know he is capable of doing that, and don’t want to lose it. I’m just giving the advice you get to decide what to do with it 😉

  2. Chris says:

    You need to leave Shin-Soo Choo out of this! He is only a few Koreans in this game! In order for baseball to survive in the future it needs to gain a larger market base. Therefore a diversity of players are needed! So Homebre don’t forget guys like Chang Ho Park and what they bring into the game. Also in Korea it is mandatory for all males to serve in the military. Therefore stress like that often can conflict with hopes of playing ball. I mean fighting a war can take a lot out of an athlete.

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