Archive for February, 2012

Good news fantasy sports fans. My fantasy baseball rankings will be slowly coming up over the first 10 days of March! A friend of mine is helping me with the rankings, so you will get to have two different opinions throughout this year’s rankings. I will put up a position a day, every weekday, starting March 1st. So Catchers will be up this Thursday. Don’t forget to follow the blog or “like” the Hombre on facebook so you can see the post the moment it is up. Spring has finally arrived because baseball is back!

The All-star break was this last weekend, and even though I didn’t get to watch much of the festivities, I did see that my Thunder did a decent job this weekend (Durant with the MVP…NICE!). We are at the half way point in the NBA season, which means we are about 2/3 of the way through our fantasy regular season. So this is the time to really take a long look at your team, and decide what you need to do for that playoff push. Or if you are at the top of your league then to take a look at what you need to do to ensure further dominance in your league. In order to do this you need to take an honest approach to your team, or in other words don’t let “names” influence” what your team has been to this point. I’m going to use one of my teams as a model for you too see what an honest evaluation might look like.

This is a team that is in 5th place in a 10 team, 9 category, league on Yahoo! I’m currently sitting 9 games out of 1st, 8 games out of 2nd, but only 1 game out from 3rd. Top 6 teams make the playoffs, and top 2 seeds get a first week bye. So my goal should be trying to climb my way up to the 2nd seed. This will ensure I will be in the semi-finals no matter what. I have 5 weeks to make up this gap, and I play both the #1, and #2 team in the next 3 weeks (these are matchups I really need to focus in on winning so I can make up the gap faster). Now let’s look at my team, Dwayne Wade (PG,SG), James Harden (SG, SF), Mario Chalmers (PG), Tony Allen (SG, SF), Kris Humpries (PF), Tiago Splitter (PF,C), Serge Ibaka (PF, C), Pau Gasol (PF, C), Gerald Wallace (SF, PF), Zaza Pachulia (C), Ricky Rubio (PG), DeAndre Jordan (PF, C), Nicolas Batum (SG, SF). So from first glance you might think “6 or 7 guys who are really good, another 3 or 4 that are serviceable, and 3 that probably won’t be on the team for long.” I have made 2 or 3 trades already in this league and 20 waiver moves so far. So this team has seen some changes and could continue to use more. Now how do you go about honestly assessing your team. Some might just look at the names and say my team looks pretty good, Wade, Harden, Ibaka, Gasol, Rubio, DeAndre, Batum and Gerald Wallace are great fantasy guys, but as most of you already know the only way to truly asses your team is by looking at the raw numbers (or stats whatever you like to call them). There are two good ways to looking at the stats of your team to evaluate what you have.

1) Simply go to your team and see what your players average stats are for the season or the last 30 days (preferably do both to get a real look at how your players have truly been). I like to look at the last 30 days first because that is a better indicator of how much value they have had recently, and if a player has had 1 or 2 “awesome statistical games” the other 12 from the month should help even out those games (unlike looking at the last 7-21 days would). So looking at my team the last 30 days, I see some pretty interesting things. Everyone on my team but 1 person shoots over 45% from the field (tsk tsk Rubio), I have lots of people contributing to my AST numbers (11 give me 1.5 or more and 6 give me more than 3), everyone but 1 person on my roster contributes in at least 1 defensive category (Tiago Splitter hasn’t done much defensively the last 30 days), I don’t hit a lot of 3’s (only 3 who give me more than 1 a game), and I only have one player getting more than 3 TO a game. So based on those 5 observations I know that I can compete in fg%, ast, stl, blk, and I’ll probably lose 3’s every week, the player that is hurting my team in fg% might need to be shopped or dropped, the player not contributing to my defensive team might need to be shopped or dropped, and I should probably just allow my team to be starved of 3 pointers for the last several weeks. This is my opinion is one of the easiest ways to honestly evaluate your team. If you let the numbers do the talking you know what your team can be or what you should start focusing on. So I should start looking to make moves that build on my strengths and that don’t cripple me in the categories I’m average at (I’m fine with completely losing 2 categories a week if that means I will be practically impossible to beat in 3 other ones).

2) The 1st way to evaluate is the best way to look at your team, but this one can be an effective way too. Simply go to your leagues cumulative stat page, or the head-to-head stat page, and start observing your team through those lens. If your league has a win-loss by category than that should be what you really look at. So let’s look at how my team is doing to show you how I go about looking at these stats. I’m 7-2 in FG%, 4-4-1 in FT%, 1-6-2 in 3’s, 3-6 in Pts, 5-4 in Reb, 6-3 in Ast, 5-3-1 in Stl, 8-1 in Blk, 4-5 in TO. From those numbers we see I’m a tough beat in FG%, AST, and BLK, I’m competitive in FT%, REB, STL, and TO, and I don’t win in 3’s and points. With all of that information I need to start basing all of my waiver pickups, and trades I propose or accept to support the categories I can compete in and/or solidify the categories I usually win at. What I mean by this is if there is 2 guys on the waiver that are both playing well the last couple of weeks (last 14 days)and their lines look like this;

player A: .446 FG%, 1.000 FT%, 2.2 3’s, 12.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.5 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.0 TO

player B: .619 FG%, .500 FT%, 0.0 3’s, 10 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.0 blk, 0.8 TO

So from a ranking standpoint Player A is better, but when looking at my team Player B is a better fit, he helps shore up FG%, and Blk, doesn’t cripple me in reb, stl or TO, and since I don’t win in 3’s or pts very often he makes more sense for my team’s “philosophy.” So that is one example of how to look at your waiver pickups once you honestly evaluate your team. Don’t just look for the guy who puts up the flashiest stats, or puts up huge points, but instead look at the guy hwo is going to really help what your team is already good at. Remember come playoff time all you have to do is win 5 categories, and it doesn’t matter which category you win or how much you lose in the categories you lose.

In Conclusion, I have given you 2 easy ways to evaluate your team just by looking at the numbers, and some advice on how to help continuing to build your team that you already have. Don’t try to change the makeup of your team completely at this point it would take far to much work, and would probably end in disaster for you. Look at the “bones” of your team and try to strengthen them the best way you can. I wish all of you luck in the final 6-8 weeks (depending on your leauge’s format) and I hope that this post can help you see your team in a honest and real way. If you have any questions regarding fantasy baskeball (trades, pickups, your team) don’t hesitate to post a comment, and I’ll try to address them as quickly as I can.