Archive for June, 2015

I took a few too many gambles in week 5 and it ended up resulting in a close week. My EU picks were the ones that really hurt, went 0-4 on them. I still ended up with a record just above .500. So just over the halfway mark, my current record stands at 26W-20L-1T (Liquid was a tie this week), which means I’m currently at a 55% winning percentage. That should be a manageable percentage to pull up to 60% in the final 4 weeks of the split. Here are the standings from last week which will be followed by the picks for this week.

All-in Projected Actual W or L
Gamsu 31 45.75 W
Kikis 34 24.78 L
Innox 33 34.47 W
Apollo 41 66.64 W
BunnyFuFu 26 41.7 W
Gravity 20 30 W
Fold Projected Actual W or L
Huni 35 42.95 L
Meteos 27 32.63 L
Nukeduck 39 46.77 L
Sneaky 39 23.96 W
Vander 36 41.72 L
Liquid 27 27 T
This Week W-L 6W-5L-1T Total W-L 26W-20L-1T

 

All-In (players that will score more than their projections)

Top – Odoamne (proj: 35pts) H2K had its first rough week last week, but it is more than likely just a blip on the radar. They get to rebound this week against Elements and UoL. Even if H2K plays poorly they will probably pull off a 2-0 week. Odoamne has been a consistent scorer so far this split. He has finished top 5 among all top laners in 3 weeks, and scored 34+ points every week but last week.

Jung – Amazing (proj: 34pts) Origen is primed for another big week; they face off against Elements and UoL. Amazing has been consistently good this split. He is the 2nd highest scoring jungler so far, averaging just shy of 23 points a game. All Origen players are a must start this week.

Mid – Fox (proj: 32pts) Something about SK’s last 2 weeks of play and their match ups against Roccat and Giants this week, make it seem like they could be primed to have a big week. Fox has performed well the last 2 weeks breaking 50+ in both weeks. With the opponents he faces this week it should result in another big week for Fox.

ADC – Forg1ven (proj: 30pts) Gambit is an interesting team. They have the players to be a top 4 team in EU, but they seem to play with little to no in-game strategy. They rely on their players ability to try and get them leads in games, and so far this split it hasn’t resulted in many wins. However, it isn’t wise to sleep on players that are good enough to break out especially given weaker opponents (CW and Roccat). Forg1ven has only broken the 30 point mark once this season, and this is going to be the 2nd time.

Supp – Smoothie (proj: 21pts) TDK finally got their Korean players back to NA, and they outplayed Dignitas. As a result, it would seem like they could be a team that makes a late run to get out of that bottom spot. Cloud9, Team8, and NME should be put on notice. TDK faces off against NME and TSM. They might go 1-1 or 0-2, but whatever their result Smoothie should get close to the 26-28 point range.

Team – SK (proj: 18pts) As said earlier, the recent play of SK should be encouraging for anyone willing to gamble on SK players. SK is averaging just under 11 points a game, and neither Giants or Roccat have shut down opposing teams of scoring fantasy points. SK will put up right around 24pts unless they go 2-0, which will put them right around the 30 mark.

 

Fold (players that will score less than their projections)

Top – Steve (proj: 33pts) Roccat looked pretty good last week going 2-0 and they face two teams they could beat this week (SK and Gambit). Last time Roccat had a week they were supposed to destroy the competition, they laid a bunch of abysmal fantasy performances. Roccat won’t fall on their face like they did week 4, but they also won’t destroy both SK and Gambit. Look for Steve to get right around the 30 point mark when the week is over.

Jung – Shook (proj: 26pts) CW have been a train wreck after their first week. They are losing new players every day it seems, and the team didn’t have good enough players to overcome this much change and discord. Shook is a good jungler, but there is no way he gets close to 20 points this week.

Mid – PowerofEvil (proj: 30pts) UoL used to be a team you could count on to make games go 45+ min and result in a fantasy scoring bloodbath, but they haven’t had that same magic this split. PowerofEvil is one of the better midlaners from a mechanical perspective, but that doesn’t always result in fantasy points (see Pobelter the 3 splits prior to this one). On top of UoL’s recent poor performances, they get to face off against Origen and H2K, and neither of those teams allow more than 15 pts a game to the enemy midlaner.

ADC – Piglet (proj: 42pts) Piglet has performed much better this split than last split, but his last two weeks he has put up 30 and 37 points. It seems like Liquid will continue their mild slump and as a result Piglet won’t be able to quite reach the 40 points mark.

Supp – Xpecial (proj: 42pts) Facing Cloud9 and Dig is neither a great week for match ups or an awful week. However, Liquid has been playing a little more up and down than they were to start the year. Xpecial and Piglet are both great players, but this week they will fall just short of their projections.

Team – Gambit (proj: 31pts) Gambit has the talent to make a late season run, but they have looked so drastically different from game to game it is to hard to see them as anything close to a safe bet. Use caution starting any of their players. Teams that go 2-0 get 30+ points, and Gambit plays too inconsistent to pull off a 2-0 week even with an easier schedule.

 

As always don’t forget to follow the blog, follow on Twitter, or “like” H2hhombre on Facebook so you can get updated as soon as a new post goes live. Who are your all-in and fold candidates for week 6? Let me know in the comments below!

This week will mark the halfway point of the season. Since each team has played 8 games there is a better picture of what each team does well and what each team does poorly. EU has a logjam at the middle and bottom of the standings, 6 teams at .500 or less, and NA is packed at the top of the standings, 5 teams at 5-3 or better. The rest of the season should have lots of entertaining games since so many teams will be fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Here is last weeks results (TSM would have been a win for me if Liquid didn’t throw that final fight, and Roccat let everyone down so don’t feel to bad about that pick) followed by my week 5 picks.

All-in Projected Actual W or L
Odoamne 34 44.94 W
Diamond 28 5.42 L
Betsy 28  20.4 L
Altec 37 49.84 W
Mithy 30 32.9 W
Roccat 26 10 L
Fold Projected Actual W or L
Vizicsacsi 43 40.82 W
Airwaks 26 8.4 W
Ninja 35 NA NA
Adryh 37 15.93 W
Aphromoo 44 49.21 L
TSM 30 32 L
This Week W-L 6W-5L Total W-L 20W-15L

All-in (players that will score more than their projections)

Top- Gamsu (proj: 31 points)  Gamsu had a monster week 4 and because of that and Dignitas’ easier schedule this week, he is a great option to beat out his projected total. He only had 85 points in the first 3 weeks which comes out to 28 points a week so the projection is fair. However, momentum is also a real thing and his near perfect performance in week 4 shows that he can be a fantasy monster. TDK and NME are on the docket for Dig so if you are a believer in the Dig magic, pick up any Dig players you can.

Jung- Kikis (proj: 34 points) Kikis is currently averaging 30 points a week. Based on that this is already an “easy” pick, but to take a deeper look into Kikis week we can see that he should beat that projection by 3-5 points. Giants are giving up roughly 19 points a game to enemy junlgers and Roccat is giving up 18 points a game to enemy junglers (this data is misisng week 3 so might be off a point or two). If we take those numbers we see that he should score around 37 points this week. UoL will have their first 2-0 week of the split.

Mid- Innox (proj: 33 points) Innox has played surprisingly well so far to start the season. This week he has two favorable match-ups against Dig, even though Dig has won a lot of games they are giving  up a decent chunk of fantasy points to their opponents, and Team 8. Innox has helped NME remain close in most of their games, and in a few has done just enough carrying to win them some games.

ADC- Apollo (proj: 41 points) Apollo has been the most consistent scorer for TiP so far this split. He scores 21.5 points a game and his two match-ups (Gravity and Cloud 9) haven’t been shutting down the enemy ADCs. So even with a high projection of 40, Apollo should get closer to the 42 point range because Gravity has allowed around 20 points a game and C9 has allowed around 22 points a game.

Supp- BunnyFuFu (proj: 26 points) All of the Gravity players have done better than most thought going into the split. In fact every player is averaging over 38 points a week. The match-ups are tough for Gravity this week (TiP and Liquid), but I don’t foresee either of them being blowouts in the enemy teams favor. If each game goes over 35 minutes Bunny should get closer to his average 38 points a week than his projection of 25. Go all-in on Bunny this week if you can.

Team- Elements (proj: 25 points) This could be a trap pick mid range point projection, easy match-ups, and a team that seems to be playing better. This should be the week that Elements goes 2-0 and potentially break the 30 point threshold since they face SK (allowing 15 points a game to enemy teams) and Giants ( allowing 13 points a game to enemy teams). Elements strategy is always get Froggen to late game carry mode and they have been performing a little better in the early game to help allow that to happen.

Fold (players that will score less than their projections)

Top – Huni (proj: 35 points) You should never pick against FNC players, but its happening this week for Huni. Huni hasn’t been nearly as dominant this split as last, in fact if you take out his week 3 performance he would be averaging 18 points a game. FNC vs H2K is going to be a great game, it will most likely end up in a similar way that the Origen FNC game ended, in a blowout for either team. If H2K pulls off the win, and FNC rebounds and crushes GMB then Huni won’t have the chance to get a huge week. This is the big gamble of the week, look for Huni to end up with 32-34 points at the end.

Jung – Meteos (proj: 28 points) Meteos hasn’t found his groove just yet as shot-caller, and it has been taking his game performance down a bit too. He has only broken 30 points once this season (week 1), and it doesn’t appear this will be the week he does it again. C9 faces TDK and TiP, both games are winnable for C9, but just because C9 wins both doesn’t mean that Meteos will be a big scorer.

Mid – Nukeduck (proj: 39 points) A lot of Roccat players have big projections and because of what they did to the Fantasy LCS community last week, I have 2 on this list as fold candidates. Ok, so that isn’t the only reason. They face UoL and CW neither of those teams shut down their enemy teams in terms of fantasy points allowed, but UoL has done well keeping the enemy mid laner from getting out of hand (15 points allowed). If CW can keep Nukeduck from going into hard carry mode this should be an easy win.

ADC – Sneaky (proj: 38 points) Sneaky has been the most consistent scorer for C9 so far this split. He is averaging just over 18 points a game and playing TiP (who is always unpredictable) and TDK (who should allow C9 to get a win again). The real reason there are two C9 players on this list is personal. I want to jinx them back into winning ways, so I figure if I put two on this list RNG will prove me wrong. Go C9, but I’m folding your players this week.

Supp – Vander (proj: 36 points) CW have allowed 18 points a game to the enemy support and UoL is allowing 16 points a game. With that information and the fact that Vander has had 2 bad fantasy weeks he should be an easy fold candidate. Not much to say about this one really.

Team – Liquid (proj: 27 points) Liquid has looked really good this split, but it hasn’t resulted in as many wins as they probably hoped. They face off against Gravity and CLG. Both games should be fun to watch and very competitive, but 30 points is the number for teams that go 2-0 and based on their inconsistencies against the better teams in NA 2-0 seems very unlikely for Liquid this week. Expect them to get closer to the 26 point range on the week.

 

As always don’t forget to follow the blog, follow on Twitter, or “like” H2hhombre on Facebook so you can get updated as soon as a new post goes live. Who are your all-in and fold candidates for week 5 are? Let me know in the comments below!

Week 4 is officially over, which means we all get to overthink every possible outcome over the next 3 days until Week 5 begins. The NA has become more unpredictable than ever and it should make for an exciting final 5 weeks. Now for the NA recap.

Legendary (players and teams that had impressive fantasy totals or just impressive games)

 

Dyrus.jpgDyrus – Dyrus had a rough spring split, but TSM has decided to no longer ignore him for the entire game and hope he can help late. As a result, he has had an excellent start to the season and he had two great Gnar games. He was able to zone people from objectives in both games, had some great flanks, and some great ultimates. Overall Dyrus had another great week with 43.55 points, which is now his 4th week beating his projection by a large margin. Dyrus is back to his carrying ways that he was first picked up by TSM for.

 

Gravity.pngGravity (specifically Altec and Hauntzer) – The change at jungle and ADC made me nervous about Gravity this split, but they have proven me wrong. The team has threats at every position, except for maybe Move (he is so ward focused that it allows his teammates to be able to make plays). Altec has shown that those weeks that he carried with Winterfox weren’t anomalies but instead that is what he is capable of doing with the right team around him. Hauntzer has also shown that he can carry when given the chance. Overall both had great weeks, Altec with 49.84 points and Hauntzer with 55.73 points.

 

CLG – CLG is on a tear [insert late season playoff joke here]. If you were one of the people who put confidence in CLG’s fantasy potential you are sitting on Cloud 9 (pun intended). CLG played a sloppy game against TDK, and then were able to wear down C9 and consistently win team fights to win the game. The week started with the potential of Doublelift not playing, and it ended with him getting a Pentakill. Every one but Aphro scored over 60 points on the week (Aprhro still ended up with 49 points). Overall another great week for CLG. Next week will be fun as they face off against Liquid and TSM.

 

Gamsu  (Dignitas in general) – Dignitas’ new carry or at least for the week. He played practically perfect in both games. He played an incredible game on Hecrim setting a LCS record for KDA while having a 100% kill participation and then his 2nd game he pulled out AD Jarvan and DUNKED on Team Liquid several times. Overall I am really impressed with how Gamsu is playing and how well Dig has been playing. At first it seemed like they were just getting lucky, but after 4 weeks I think it is a trend we need to take notice of. Week 5 should be huge for any Dig players.

 

Shut Down (players and teams that had abysmal fantasy points or were disappointing)

 

CaliTrlolz8.jpg
Calitrlolz
– Cali is the shot caller and play maker for Team 8 and he hasn’t been the same this split. He has been more inconsistent and had a pretty bad week considering the match-ups for him. He ended up with 28.30 points. I thought Team 8 was still going to be a team around the 5-7 range, but the way they have looked early that might not be the case. If Cali doesn’t start finding his groove again Team 8 is in trouble. He has yet to break the 35 point mark on the season (broke that number 4 times last split).

 

cloud 9Cloud 9 – Everyone on the team told us it would take some time for them to get going, but 2-6 is starting to get a little scary. They have been really inconsistent and seem to be playing with less purpose to start the game. The game against CLG showed that they are capable of playing with the top teams in NA still, but they need to start finding a groove sooner than later. Meteos has a lot of pressure as the shot caller and it seems to be showing in his play too, (12 points a game). The most recent game could be what they need to go on a winning streak the next 3 weeks, which would find them right in the middle of the pack come playoff time. Once they get to playoffs you can’t ever count them out.

 

Games of the week

TSM vs TL – TL’s was winning, then TSM was, TL took back the lead, and then TSM closed the door with a great final fight by TL’s red buff. If Quas puts the equalizer higher in the choke point we may be looking at TL as the NA leaders.

TSM vs Gravity – This was a game that TSM controlled pretty much the entire time, but Gravity never gave up and made it closer than it probably should have been.

C9 vs CLG – Really fun game to watch. Lots of team fights that ended up with 3 dead and 6 with blinking red health bars. C9 tried everything they could to claw their way back into the game, but CLG was too much in the end.

Dig vs TiP & Dig vs Liquid – Dignitas is the most exciting team in the NA LCS right now. They are playing out of their mind and they just keep winning. Gamsu put on his biggest backpack he could this week and everyone jumped in. Dig is now 6-2 on the split!

 

As always don’t forget to follow the blog, follow on Twitter, or “like” H2hhombre on Facebook so you can get updated as soon as a new post goes live.