Archive for January, 2016

Week 2 had lots of surprises both in the games and some of the player switches and roster issues. It looks like those situations will continue into week 3 with more visa issues on some of the EU rosters, and a few more roster changes in NA. The echo fox NRG game getting cancelled cost me 2 players in my week 2 picks, but still ended with a good week. I look to continue my success in my week 3 picks.

allin

 

All-in (players that will score more than their projection)

Top – Vit CaboChard (30pts) Cabo hasn’t had the best season so far, but I think week 3 is where he finally puts it together. Vitality has another week of working together and they face Giants and H2k which should give Cabo some opportunities to shine.

Jungle – TSM Svenskeren (29pts) I’m high on TSM and CLG this week. So when I see Svens is under 30 points it was a no-brainer all-in for me. TSM has two tough opponents in NRG and C9 but they are the better team from top to bottom than both and have been able to win some games without playing well yet.

Mid – NRG GBM (30pts) We haven’t gotten to see a lot of GBM so far this season, but in his few games he has shown he can make some plays. His opponents are Bjergsen and Fenix both will challenge him in different ways. I do think that 30 points for him is too low. Even if NRG loses both games this week GBM and Impact will have good weeks.

ADC – CLG Stixxay (34pts) So far in the young season Stixxay has looked good then bad then good again. With matchups against Echo Fox and Renegades I expect the CLG bot lane to shine. I would expect a 2-0 week for them, and 40+ points for the young ADC.

Support – CLG Aphromoo (26pts) Aphromoo has always been a guy who can put up big points, but he also can be overly aggressive leading to tough weeks (last week). I do believe his playmaking will result in huge points for him and CLG.

Team – TSM (25pts) TSM is primed for a 2-0 week, even with tough opponents they have started to look a little better in their team play. I think another week of working together and learning to trust each other in team fights we will see a dominant TSM team. I think week 3 is the beginning of that.

 

Fold (players that will score less than their projection)

Top – Odoamne (35pts) H2K has put more focus on their bot lane and mid lane this year than last. As a result Odoamne hasn’t been the fantasy monster we have come to expect. Even though he will still be a good top laner when the season is over I don’t see him having a big week against Vit and Roccat.

Jungle – FNC Spirit (37pts) Fnatic has a slightly easier schedule this week than their last two (Splyce and G2). I think FNC will go 2-0 but Spirit has two weeks of 30 points and until he shows he can be more than that I won’t go all-in on him this week.

Mid – UoL Fox (42pts) UoL has played really well to start the year, but not being able to have Diamond for the forseeable future hurts what they have been doing so far. As a result I don’t love UoL in week 3.

ADC – Dig Apollo (38pts) Dignitas plays Impulse and C9 in week 3 and they have done their usual surprise everyone to start the split. They could surprise us again and pull out a 2-0 week again, but I think C9 will beat them and who knows what will happen when they play TIP. Overall I see Apollo getting in the mid to low 30’s when the week 3 dust settles.

Support – UoL Hylissang (34pts) Hylissang hasn’t scored 32 points in either of the first 2 weeks. With the team being down a player and facing G2 and Elements (both teams have been playing well) Hylissang won’t be able to get that 34 points.

Team – Liquid (31pts) Liquid still hasn’t figured out their issues, but they have been competitive in all 4 games. Teams almost always have to go 2-0 to surpass 30 points. Liquid faces NRG and Impulse. This could be the week they could be 2-0 but I see them finishing 1-1 and around 25 points.

As always, don’t forget to follow the blog, follow me on twitter, or like me on facebook so you can be informed when a new article goes live. I also set up a Patreon page for anyone interested. Good luck to everyone week 3.

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Week 1 of the LCS is in the past, and it was surprisingly anti-climatic. There were many lopsided games, and some games went way longer than many anticipated without great fantasy lines. This usually happens in week 1 as all the players and teams are getting used to playing with each other again, playing on the stage, and just getting used to the new patch and play styles. Don’t have major reactions to players and teams after one week, give the players and teams three weeks before making real judgments about what they will be this split. I had lots of success in week 1 going 3-1 in my fantasy leagues, making $5 in a daily league and going 9-3 on my picks, but that is in the past and we are on to week 2!

week 1 allin fold

All-in (players that will over perform their projections)

Top – IMT Huni (30 pts) Huni scored under 30 last week, but the beat down of TiP didn’t allow for many points for anyone on the team. I expect Huni to score in the high 30’s this week as IMT faces TSM and NRG.

Jungle – REN Crumbz (26 pts) Usually Crumbz isn’t going to be a great pick in fantasy since his play style is more controlled and calculated, but he had a good week last week and this week Renegades faces Dig and TiP because of those match=ups I see another 30 point performance from the seasoned veteran.

Mid – Fox Froggen (32 pts) Froggen only mustered 23 points last week, but he had a tough game 2. This week he faces NRG and Liquid. I don’t think he will blow this projection out of the water, but I see him finishing the week around the 35 point mark.

ADC – NRG Altec (37 pts) I’m still skeptical on how good NRG will actually be this split, but one thing is for sure at this point, Altec is the most consistent ADC out there. Altec only has 2 weeks of under 37 points in his last 10 weeks of the LCS. Even though I think NRG will go 1-1 this week I expect Altec to end the week with his usual 44 point week.

Support – REN Remi (26 pts) Remi showed some jitters in week 1 with a few misplays, but overall she performed really well. Since Renegades has an easier week, and they seem to play well together, Remi should have another strong fantasy week.

Team – Immortals (26 pts) Going into the season I though IMT would be a top 3 LCS team, and after week 1 I feel pretty good about that. Even though they face tough competition this week, I still expect them to win both games.

 

Fold (players that will under perform their projections)

Top – H2K Odoamne (37 pts) Odo has been one of my favorite top laners since his first appearance in the LCS. He is consistent and can be a huge threat when given the resources. I think he will have a good week, but not quite 37 points. FNC knows how to alter their tactics to their opponent, and kikis might have some crazy pick that Odo isn’t ready for. These factors make me think a 32 point week is in the works for Odo.

Jungle – C9 Rush (44 pts) We all know that Rush can go off in any given moment, but I don’t think this will be that week. CLG and Impulse are his match-ups, so 1 game will be methodical and low kills (CLG) the other will probably be a 30 minute win (impulse). Because of those factors 44 seems a bit to steep for Rush to get.

Mid – TSM Bjergsen (49 pts) TSM still has to figure out who gets what resources and how they are going to play before I see Bjerg getting 50 point weeks. I wouldn’t say sit him but I 49 is too many points against IMT and Dig.

ADC – C9 Sneaky (48 pts) The main reason I have Sneaky here is the same as Bjerg and Rush, the point projection is just to high to get to. Sneaky will end up in the low 40’s but don’t foresee him getting to the 50 point mark.

Support – TL Smoothie (31 pts) I would imagine this projection will drop since Matt will probably start at least one game. Even if Smoothie does play both I don’t think a 30+ week is in the works. TL played well both games, and they face CLG and Fox which both are winnable games but I’m not ready to go all-in on Team Liquid players that aren’t Piglet.

Team – Liquid (29 pts) Over the last 2 LCS splits teams don’t usually break 28 points unless the go 2-0. Obviously there have been some exceptions, but it is too hard to score big points if you don’t win. Although Liquid has winnable games, I don’t see a 2-0 week for them.

As always, don’t forget to follow the blog, follow me on twitter, or like me on facebook so you can be informed when a new article goes live. I also set up a Patreon page for anyone interested. Good luck to everyone week 2.

 

 

 

For those that have read my work the last two splits know exactly what to expect from these weekly posts, but for those of you who are new, let me explain what an All-in or Fold post will look like. I’m going to be taking one player from every position that I think is going to outscore their projection and one player from every position that I think will score below their projection. I’m using the projections that are used directly from fantasy LCS. The spring split last year I was 54% right on my picks (not good but better than coin toss) and last split I was just under 58%. If I continue on that pattern then this is the split I hit 62%. Let’s  jump into this week’s all-in and fold candidates.

 

All-in (players that will outscore their projections)

Top- OG Soaz (30pts) Origen is going to be the best team this split, because of talent and continuity. Even though they have some tougher matchups week 1 (H2K and FNC) I think they will perform well and Soaz should easily surpass his 30 point projection.

Jungle- TSM Svenskeren (33pts) I think TSM is going to struggle some this split to figure out how all of their pieces are going to work together and who is going to get the resources, but they have too much talent to ignore. Their matchups against TL and CLG should be wins for them, but I think the games will be longer games meaning more points for everyone

Mid- Vit Nukeduck (33pts) Nukeduck has burned me a few times the last two splits, but I think Vit is going to be a pretty solid team this split. If Nukeduck can play as well as he did the final weeks of summer split, then 33 points will be a breeze.

ADC- CLG Stixxay (33pts) I don’t think CLG will fall as much as some others are expecting. They have two new starters, but both have been with the team for over 6 months. I think Aphro will be able to set up Stixxay for plenty of opportunities.

Support- H2K Vander (24pts) Vander has the benefit of getting to play alongside of Forg1vengre, or he gets stuck playing next to him. Either way Forg1vengre is a great player, and Vander will help compliment his aggressive style. 24 should be a breeze for Vander.

Team- H2K (25 pts) H2K plays Giants and Origen. I expect them to beat Giants pretty easily then play Origen close until the end. I think they will be able to surpass their 25 point projection.

 

Fold (players that will underscore their projections)

Top- Roc Freddy122 (29pts) I think Freddy will end up with a good split overall, but I don’t think week 1 is the week he goes off. If he does beat his projection it will be Roccat funneling ganks, and resources to him. Either way I say fold him this week.

Jungle- FNC Spirit (32pts) FNC is giong to end up being a top 4 team in the EU LCS, but I think they will struggle some the first few weeks. With matchups against Origen and Vit I could see Spirit having a difficult start to his EU career.

Mid- Fox Froggen (40pts) I think Froggen will put up consistently strong fantasy numbers in the NA LCS, but 40 points might be a little to high for me. If echo fox can’t close out the game early on TiP this will be a hard one for me to win, but I see it being a stomp by Fox.

ADC- Gia Adryh (33pts) The new Giants face UoL and H2K in week 1 and unfortunately I think that will mean a lower total for the Giants players. The only player I would start week 1 would be Pepii but that is because you never know when he goes off for 40.

Support- IMT Adrian (39pts) Adrian is one of the best fantasy supports and will continue to be, but 39 is to high of a point total for me this week. I believe that top and mid will be a bigger focus for IMT so Turtle and Adrian won’t score quite as much as their projections.

Team- FNC (29pts) Typically teams go 2-0 when the get to the 28+ point range, and I don’t think FNC goes 2-0 this week. Therefore they are my fold candidate.

 

As always, don’t forget to follow the blog, follow me on twitter, or like me on facebook so you can be informed when a new article goes live. Good luck to everyone week 1!