Archive for the ‘Fantasy Basketball’ Category

It has been a while, but the new NBA season is starting so I figured I would start up too. The new season brings lots of new questions to the table for a lot of teams, will the Clippers be the top of the West with Doc at the helm? Will the Bulls compete with a healthy Rose? Will the Thunder be a powerhouse with no “true” third option and a banged up/recovering Westbrook for the first few months? How bad will the Bobcats be this year? With a new season there are also fun questions in regard to fantasy players too, will Kyrie Irving take that next step and replace CP3 as the best PG in fantasy? Will Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio be top dogs in their respective positions now that they are fully healthy? What Dwight will we get in Houston? How good will Pau be with no Kobe? Can some of the rookies be fantasy relevant this season? Unfortunately I can’t give you answers to these questions we will all just have to watch the season unfold, but what I can do is give you the 10 guys I think will make a huge fantasy splash this season. Some of the guys will seem like pretty obvious guesses, but a few are going to be long shots that I think will be fantasy relevant or take that big step into the fantasy “must have” category. So without further ado my list of 10 guys who will surprise you this NBA season.

1) Kyrie Irving PG-Cle – So we all know that Irving is a beast, and he is entering his third season which is a typical year when guys take that BIG jump from good to great. He can take over a 4th quarter because of his quickness, and his ability to shoot an outside jumper. I think all of his % will be higher than they were last year (he has a better cast around him and they are all maturing which should mean smarter shots). I also think he could easily be a 24 pts, 4 reb, 8 ast, 2 stl guy this year. And with those numbers he will finish as one of the top 5 guys in fantasy basketball. If you have the chance to pull the trigger on him in the first round don’t be afraid!

2013-14 season projection- 48.3% FG, 87.6% FT, 1.9 3’s, 24.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.1 TO

2) Al Jefferson C-Cha – Al at one point in his career had a 23/11/2 season (2 being blks). That was with Min when he was the featured guy in the offense. He had plenty of chances in Utah, but it never seemed to quite fit for him there (he still put up really good numbers the last three years). I think Cha will look to Al early and often to wear down the interior of teams so that the young guards get a chance to have some freedom. I think we will see numbers similar to what he did back in 2008. Great value pick on a bad team, plus he doesn’t hurt you in any category as a big man!

2013-14 season projection- 50.4% FG, 77.5% FT, 0.1 3’s, 22.4 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.6 blk, 1.6 TO

3) Ricky Rubio PG-Min – Ricky should be 100% healthy after his ACL surgery the end of the 2011 season, and he has now been in the NBA for 2 full years (this being his third) which as I said about Kyrie that is usually when guys finally know what they can and can’t do against the competition. Rubio can’t shoot and I don’t think that will change anytime soon, but what he can do is rack up lots of ast, and get you a ton of stls. He is above elite in both categories so if this helps your strategy in building a team that tanks fg% he is a guy you can’t pass on. He will have a career year in all categories and Min should be really fun to watch.

2013-14 season projection- 41.5% FG, 80.8 FT%, 0.8 3’s, 12.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 12.3 ast, 2.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 3.2 TO

4) Paul Milsap PF-Atl – Paul had a career year in 2010 then has steadily declined since then. I think alot of that was due to the constant change in Utah, and the fact they had about 75 Big men on the roster last year trying to get minutes. Paul is one of those guys who will never overwhelm you with his numbers, but when you take a closer look he does a little bit of everything for you, and is a complement to any team strategy you guy with this season. I think him and Al Horford will make a great duo switching between the high and low post! Expect big things from Milsap this season.

2013-14 season projection- 52.5% FG, 77.7 % FT, 0.3 3’s, 16.2 Pts, 8.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.3 blk, 1.5 TO

5) Ersan Ilysova SF, PF-Mil – Ersan has had two good seasons the last two, he has shown flashes in both that point to him being able to be a big time player in the NBA. I think with some of the guys out of Mil that required a lot of shots Ersan and some of the other guys in Mil will get a chance to shine. He has shown he can reb at a high rate, and able to shoot around 50% from the field. I fully expect him to put together a season where he does both of those and some this season. Don’t expect Mil to be anything special in the NBA world but they have a couple of high quality fantasy guys. Ersan will be one of them.

2013-14 season projection- 48.9% FG, 82.0% FT, 1.5 3’s, 14.6 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.8 blk, 1.9 TO

6) Andrew Bynum C-Cle – Bynum hasn’t played a NBA game since the end of 2011, but reports are saying he is looking good, and is practicing at a fairly high level. He is only going to turn 27 this year so he isn’t old by any means. He was the 2nd best C when he played from 2009-2011. And I think if he plays at least 2/3 of the season he can put up the numbers to finish top 3 at the C position this year too. He seems motivated and has a good young Cle team around him. All he needs to do is get healthy and play some basketball. I would say expect around 55-60 games from Bynum this year.

2013-14 season projection- 57.4% FG, 69.8% FT, 0.0 3’s, 15.5 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 0.6 stl, 2.2 blk, 1.8 TO

7) Derrick Favors PF, C-Utah – I know preseason doesn’t mean much of anything, but Favors is rebounding the ball at an incredible rate this preseason. He was living in the shadow of Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap the last 3 years, but now will get to show everyone why he was highly touted coming out of college. He will finally get starters minutes, and he is someone I will be eyeing in every league this year. He can block shots, and will grab tons of rebounds for you. Don’t pass him up this year.

2013-14 season projection- 48.8% FG, 65.9% FT, 0.0 3’s, 15.2 pts, 11.6 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.9 blk, 2.2 TO

8) Evan Turner SG, SF-Phi – Evan has great ability and is entering his 4th season in the NBA. The 76ers won’t be good, but Evan is one of the few options on the team. He is going to take a dip in his FG% this season and in his TO, but since the team is letting him run the show this year all the other numbers are going to be fun to have. He is a guy that you can build your tank FG% team with. So don’t be afraid to pull the trigger because he will help you in a lot of categories!

2013-14 season projection- 40.8% FG, 77.5% FT, 1.1 3’s, 6.9 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.3 TO

9) Tiago Splitter C-SA – Tiago has quietly become a very effective C in the NBA and puts up quality numbers to make him relevant in almost every fantasy format. He has gotten better every year, and will continue to get more minutes to play as Tim gets more rest, and Pop begins to trust the young Center. I don’t think he is going to finish in the top 10 of Centers this year, but he is going to make himself a great 2nd or 3rd option on any team. He is a guy that is efficient and that is important in fantasy basketball.

2013-14 season projection- 58.9% FG, 74.5% FT, 0.0 3’s, 13.3 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.4 blk, 1.2 TO

10) Steven Adams C-OKC – Stevan won’t put up huge numbers because he won’t be the starter but I think Perk will get hurt at some point this year, and Adams will be forced to play big minutes for about a month to two months. He has shown he can put up some good “big” numbers in the preseason, and plays really aggressively on the offensive glass. He also can catch the ball (which Perk or Serge can’t do all that well on the inside…it hurts me everytime I see one of them get a BEAUTIFUL entry pass from KD or Russ, and it hits their chest and rolls down their body out of bounds) This is a total homer pick and I’m probably blinded by my optimism, but I think he has some good “tools” to be effective on the Thunder when given the opportunity to play.

2013-14 season projection- 55.8% FG, 65% FT, 0.0 3’s, 7.2 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.5 stl, 1.3 blk, 1.5 TO

Well there you have it my 10 guys who will surprise this season. Let me know who you think is going to exceed expectations this year in the comments, and don’t forget to “like” the Hombre on facebook or subscribe to the blog. I will be posting my 10 guys who I think will disappoint sometime this weekend. Good luck to you all this fantasy basketball season!

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Long time no see blog! Sorry that I completely fell off the map those of you that actually checked the page from time to time. Life got busy and I tried to do too much on top of my job and got burned out. But I figured new year means “restarting” so wanted to try and get back into doing some blogging. Since it is my favorite season and favorite fantasy season (basketball) thought this would be the best time to start up again. So now on to the good stuff, if you forgot, this is how this works,

All-In=add them to your roster if they are avaliable.

Check=watch them over the next several games because they could be that “budding” fantasy rose.

Fold=if they are still on your team it is time to cut ties because they no longer bring any value (this has been Vince Carter the last 3 seasons)

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How can you say no to that smile 😛

All-In

Jarrett Jack (PG,SG GS)- Step Curry injured his ankle again (a shame to because he was ballin’ this season) So his backup, Jack, will step in to fill the void. Jack has been very productive this season as a bench player so this is what to expect from him as the starter. 47%+ FG%, 86%+ FT%, 1.1 3’s, 16 pts, 3.5 reb, 6.5 ast, 1 stl, 0 blk, and around 3 TO. That is a great PG across the board does everything you want from you PG but doesn’t shoot poorly. If he is still a FA add him even if it is for the next 3 or 4 games as Curry’s strength rebuilds.

Elton Brand (PF, C Dal)- Brand is only averaging around 22 min a game the last month, but he is being very productive in those minutes. Over the last 2 weeks (7 games) this is what his line gets you, 63% fg%, 89% ft%, 0 3’s, 10.9 pts, 6.4 reb, 0.6 ast, 0.3 stl, 2.1 blk, and 0.3 TO. So it isn’t the “sexy” line you may want, but if you need a big boost in fg%, ft% and blk, Brand is the guy you can add and he will greatly increase those for you. Plus he doesn’t hurt you in pts or rebounds which is what should happen since he is a PF, C.

Check

Wilson Chandler (SG, SF Den)- Chandler has just returned from a hip injury so he will probably see some ups and downs over the next 2 weeks, which is why I have him on the “check” list. If you have some extra bench space or don’t mind dealing with a sudden no start for extra rest then he could be worth an immediate add, and here is why. Chandler for in his last full season 10-11 shot around 45%, 80% from the line, gave you about 1.5 3’s a game, right around 14 pts, 5.5 reb, 2 ast, less than a stl and a blk a game. Those are quality numbers from your 2 or 3. He has the potential to be a 2 3’s a game type guy so he could be someone you will want to watch. (he also has had 5 stl in his first 2 games back this season from his injury)

Earl Clark (SF, PF LAL)- Clark got to see a lot of minutes this past week with Pau out (concussion), Dwight out (shoulder), and Hill out (hip surgery) and he did surprisingly well probably better than anyone could have hoped for him. He is a long athletic guy who brings a lot of energy to the game. How does that translate to fantasy value. In his 4 games this week he had 9pts, 9 reb, 3 ast, 2 blks a game. (all of those are within .2 of the actual value). So nothing special, but when you have a SF getting 9 reb and 2 blks you will take it or if you have a PF getting 3 dimes you take it. I would say watch and see how his minutes end up being now that Pau and Dwight are both back, but if he continues to see 20-26 I think he would make a solid contribution to any team.

Fold

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I don’t know why you are playing so poorly either Kris…figure it out dude!

Kris Humphries (PF Bkn)- Humphries has seen his role decline dramatically since Avery was fired. He has only gotten around 19 min a game the last month, and there isn’t any signs that he will get back up to the 26-30 he was seeing early in the year. On top of that he is shooting under 43% from the field and only getting you 5 pts and 5 reb. It is time to send Humprhries to the pine in your fantasy league aka the waiver pool.

Marcus Thornton (SG Sac)- Thornton has been a great fantasy player the last 2 years, but over the last month he is seeing his role quickly diminish (only getting 16 min the last 4 games). Sacremento is bad and they are trying out every combination of their current players to see who will be kept when they move to Seattle. Thornton over the last month was only bringing in 1.8 3’s and 11 pts. He was shooting poorly 42%, and bringing in 0 defensive stats. So I think it is time to let Marcus go…

I hope you enjoyed the post. I will try to put one up every week or 2 weeks this year, but no guarantees during the summer months (my busy season). As always if you enjoyed don’t hesitate to subscribe to the blog, like H2HHombre on facebook, or help spread the word. Enjoy your Friday!

The All-star break was this last weekend, and even though I didn’t get to watch much of the festivities, I did see that my Thunder did a decent job this weekend (Durant with the MVP…NICE!). We are at the half way point in the NBA season, which means we are about 2/3 of the way through our fantasy regular season. So this is the time to really take a long look at your team, and decide what you need to do for that playoff push. Or if you are at the top of your league then to take a look at what you need to do to ensure further dominance in your league. In order to do this you need to take an honest approach to your team, or in other words don’t let “names” influence” what your team has been to this point. I’m going to use one of my teams as a model for you too see what an honest evaluation might look like.

This is a team that is in 5th place in a 10 team, 9 category, league on Yahoo! I’m currently sitting 9 games out of 1st, 8 games out of 2nd, but only 1 game out from 3rd. Top 6 teams make the playoffs, and top 2 seeds get a first week bye. So my goal should be trying to climb my way up to the 2nd seed. This will ensure I will be in the semi-finals no matter what. I have 5 weeks to make up this gap, and I play both the #1, and #2 team in the next 3 weeks (these are matchups I really need to focus in on winning so I can make up the gap faster). Now let’s look at my team, Dwayne Wade (PG,SG), James Harden (SG, SF), Mario Chalmers (PG), Tony Allen (SG, SF), Kris Humpries (PF), Tiago Splitter (PF,C), Serge Ibaka (PF, C), Pau Gasol (PF, C), Gerald Wallace (SF, PF), Zaza Pachulia (C), Ricky Rubio (PG), DeAndre Jordan (PF, C), Nicolas Batum (SG, SF). So from first glance you might think “6 or 7 guys who are really good, another 3 or 4 that are serviceable, and 3 that probably won’t be on the team for long.” I have made 2 or 3 trades already in this league and 20 waiver moves so far. So this team has seen some changes and could continue to use more. Now how do you go about honestly assessing your team. Some might just look at the names and say my team looks pretty good, Wade, Harden, Ibaka, Gasol, Rubio, DeAndre, Batum and Gerald Wallace are great fantasy guys, but as most of you already know the only way to truly asses your team is by looking at the raw numbers (or stats whatever you like to call them). There are two good ways to looking at the stats of your team to evaluate what you have.

1) Simply go to your team and see what your players average stats are for the season or the last 30 days (preferably do both to get a real look at how your players have truly been). I like to look at the last 30 days first because that is a better indicator of how much value they have had recently, and if a player has had 1 or 2 “awesome statistical games” the other 12 from the month should help even out those games (unlike looking at the last 7-21 days would). So looking at my team the last 30 days, I see some pretty interesting things. Everyone on my team but 1 person shoots over 45% from the field (tsk tsk Rubio), I have lots of people contributing to my AST numbers (11 give me 1.5 or more and 6 give me more than 3), everyone but 1 person on my roster contributes in at least 1 defensive category (Tiago Splitter hasn’t done much defensively the last 30 days), I don’t hit a lot of 3’s (only 3 who give me more than 1 a game), and I only have one player getting more than 3 TO a game. So based on those 5 observations I know that I can compete in fg%, ast, stl, blk, and I’ll probably lose 3’s every week, the player that is hurting my team in fg% might need to be shopped or dropped, the player not contributing to my defensive team might need to be shopped or dropped, and I should probably just allow my team to be starved of 3 pointers for the last several weeks. This is my opinion is one of the easiest ways to honestly evaluate your team. If you let the numbers do the talking you know what your team can be or what you should start focusing on. So I should start looking to make moves that build on my strengths and that don’t cripple me in the categories I’m average at (I’m fine with completely losing 2 categories a week if that means I will be practically impossible to beat in 3 other ones).

2) The 1st way to evaluate is the best way to look at your team, but this one can be an effective way too. Simply go to your leagues cumulative stat page, or the head-to-head stat page, and start observing your team through those lens. If your league has a win-loss by category than that should be what you really look at. So let’s look at how my team is doing to show you how I go about looking at these stats. I’m 7-2 in FG%, 4-4-1 in FT%, 1-6-2 in 3’s, 3-6 in Pts, 5-4 in Reb, 6-3 in Ast, 5-3-1 in Stl, 8-1 in Blk, 4-5 in TO. From those numbers we see I’m a tough beat in FG%, AST, and BLK, I’m competitive in FT%, REB, STL, and TO, and I don’t win in 3’s and points. With all of that information I need to start basing all of my waiver pickups, and trades I propose or accept to support the categories I can compete in and/or solidify the categories I usually win at. What I mean by this is if there is 2 guys on the waiver that are both playing well the last couple of weeks (last 14 days)and their lines look like this;

player A: .446 FG%, 1.000 FT%, 2.2 3’s, 12.8 pts, 3.5 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.5 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.0 TO

player B: .619 FG%, .500 FT%, 0.0 3’s, 10 pts, 9.7 reb, 1.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.0 blk, 0.8 TO

So from a ranking standpoint Player A is better, but when looking at my team Player B is a better fit, he helps shore up FG%, and Blk, doesn’t cripple me in reb, stl or TO, and since I don’t win in 3’s or pts very often he makes more sense for my team’s “philosophy.” So that is one example of how to look at your waiver pickups once you honestly evaluate your team. Don’t just look for the guy who puts up the flashiest stats, or puts up huge points, but instead look at the guy hwo is going to really help what your team is already good at. Remember come playoff time all you have to do is win 5 categories, and it doesn’t matter which category you win or how much you lose in the categories you lose.

In Conclusion, I have given you 2 easy ways to evaluate your team just by looking at the numbers, and some advice on how to help continuing to build your team that you already have. Don’t try to change the makeup of your team completely at this point it would take far to much work, and would probably end in disaster for you. Look at the “bones” of your team and try to strengthen them the best way you can. I wish all of you luck in the final 6-8 weeks (depending on your leauge’s format) and I hope that this post can help you see your team in a honest and real way. If you have any questions regarding fantasy baskeball (trades, pickups, your team) don’t hesitate to post a comment, and I’ll try to address them as quickly as I can.