Posts Tagged ‘Dan Uggla’

If you know me at all you would know that I love trading in fantasy sports. I will offer trades to people the minute after the draft is over all the way up to the final minute before the “trade deadline” hits. Something about being able to change the look of your team is just fun for me. However I usually try to win my trade, in terms of value, but if a person is willing to talk through what they want, why they want a certain player I own, or just keep the lines of communication open I am much more willing to do a 50/50 trade. I think we can all agree that when we trade we want the biggest return when we make the deal, and sometimes we see value in different ways. I wrote a post a couple of months ago about the different types of trades, fantasy trading, if you are interested (note: it is written with NBA being the focal point, but the concept of the trades carry over to every sport. For this post I am going to tell you who you should look to trade for and who you should look to ship out.

It's time to put your money on these guys!

-Dan Uggla-Uggla is batting just a measly .180 on the year, and that is with 194 AB on the year. So things have been ugly for him this year. His career low in AVG is .243. So let’s say he ties a career worst in his AVG. That would mean he would bat close to .265 from here on out, and that is to just get to .243 on the year. If you think like me that he will probably get to about .255. Then he would hit around .284. He has had 30+ HR every single season so I don’t see that changing. Fantasy Baseball is a very patient long term game and if you can get a guy who is going to bat .260-.280 the rest of the year with 23+ HR then you would take it…well that is Uggla so go for him.

Shin-Soo Choo-Choo seems to be one of the only players on the Indians roster who isn’t doing everything right, some see that as a bad thing but for fantasy people that should be a good sign of what is to come. His last month has actually been pretty good, .281, 13 r, 3 hr, 12 rbi, 3 sb. So if he can even just meet that over the final four months his season totals would be. 75 r, 17 hr, 60 rbi, 19 sb, .266. I would venture a guess that Choo finishes higher in every category at seasons end. Once the weather gets nicer in Cleveland I think Choo’s bat will help carry the Indians offense to a surprising year.

-Billy Butler-Butler is on 2 of my fantasy teams so this might be wishful thinking. Butler is a guy who has decent numbers across the board in his short career, but his true value was in his batting average. Butler’s OBP is higher right now than in year’s past, he is on pace to set a career low in GIDP, and he is on pace to have almost 100 walks on the year. When players are able to take lots of walks that usually means they are seeing the ball pretty well, and when players can see the ball that means the hits start to come. In Butler’s last 14 days he is hitting over .340. If you need help in the AVG department I think he is a great buy low guy.

-Other notable cash in candidates: Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Troy Tulowitzki

Cash Out (players who have outperformed themselves and should be traded while their value is still really high)

Get big money on these players while you still can

-Asdrubal Cabrera-Cabrera has done some amazing things so far this season. He has already set a career high in HR with 10 (previous season high was 6). He has 7 SB with 0 CS, which puts him on pace for about 26 SB on the year (would be a career high). And is hitting over .300, which he has done only once in his short 4 year career. He might be the next Jose Bautista breakout player, or just another 25 year old player that starts reaching his potential. But I don’t think he can keep this kind of torrid pace. I would shop him around since in the last 14 days he has half of those 10 HR. Get something pretty in return for his monster start.

-Jay Bruce-Bruce had a pretty bad April and then followed it up with a great May. His stats over the last 30 days look like this, .324, 20 r, 10 hr, 26 rbi, 1 sb. That is a great month to have for a team. I do think Bruce has the talent and ability to be a top 25 player, but these type numbers would make him a top 5 player…and I’m not quite ready to put him there yet. I would bet someone in your league loves this guy as much as you do and you could get a top 15 player in return for him, and I would say CASH OUT!

-Matt Joyce-Joyce are the kind of waiver gems that come along and can be great for your team for about 20-40 days (and yes sometimes longer), but after their hot run they usually fade out and return to the player they were before. He is hitting .367 for the year right now, but he hit .275 in the minors for his 6 seasons. So even if he has started to be a better hitter I think it is safe to say his AVG will probably be around .300 or lower by season’s end, which means a poor .272 AVG the rest of the season. He hasn’t been known to be a huge HR guy either in his Minor league career, and he is on pace for about 28 this year (which would be 11 more than his best in the minors and 16 more than in the pros) Cash out while you still can!

-Other notables Michael Brantley, Howie Kendrick, Lance Berkman, Brett Gardner

Sorry I haven’t been posting that much, I have been distracted by my OKC Thunder who just got eliminated last night. So now I can grieve which means I will eat, sleep, and think fantasy baseball. So you can expect my posts to be more consistent over the next 3 months. Subscribe if you like what I have put out, comment if you have any questions or comments regarding fantasy sports, and “like” H2H Hombre on facebook.

Advertisements

You may have heard the old expression April Showers bring May Flowers, and baseball players have experienced a similar phenomenon as that saying. April had a lot of rain delays in the northeast, and many players, who we all hoped would have great 2011 have had poor Aprils. But the good thing (to some the bad thing) about baseball is that there is 6 months in the season, 162 games. April is just 1/6 of the season, so a players poor April can mean very little by season’s end. Baseball is a game of patience, perserverance, and a little luck. Take a look at these players from last year who had terrible April’s but bounced back in May.

David Ortiz (Bos-util) Last April Ortiz looked like he was playing in his final days. This is what his numbers looked like in April; .143 BA, 5 r, 1 HR, 4 rbi, and 0 sb. Ortiz didn’t want his playing days to be finished so he made his presence known in May putting up Big Papi like numbers…if I remember right he even had 3 game winning rbis after the 7th inning in May. Here is what his May looked like; .363 BA, 16 r 10 HR, 27 rbi, and 0 SB.

Matt Cain (SF-SP) Cain’s April wasn’t awful, but it wasn’t what many expected. He was supposed to continue his progression of being the 2nd guy behind Timmy. His April was a medoicre, 0 W, 3.80 era, 1.19 WHIP, and only 16 K’s in 4 games started. His May however made him seem like the person most expected. In 6 May starts he recorded 3 W, 1.8 era, 0.9 WHIP, and 35 K’s.

Hunter Pence (Hou-OF) Pence had early season struggles but all of the Astros did last April. Pence has always had a little bit of a streaky bat, but his April numbers were pretty low, .232 BA, 11 r, 2 HR, 7 rbi, 2 sb. Good thing for Pence is that he turned it on in May and made those who were patient with him rewarded, .302 BA, 15 r, 6 HR, 16 rbi, 3 sb.

So there is a couple of examples of guys whose terrible Aprils turned into huge May numbers. I’m sure if you did a little digging you would find 10-15 more examples of the same thing. The good news is since it happened last year, and the year before, and probably since the start of MLB’s existence you can almost guarantee that it will happen with players this season, and these are the guys I think could easily do the same this season.

Red Sox nation is hoping to see a lot more of that smile in May.

Carl Crawford (Bos-OF)Carl is one of many Red Sox I could have put on here, but his April numbers have been hard to look at. He has never had a season in which he, hit under .280, had less than 45 sb, or less than 80 runs (if you don’t count his injury riddled ’08 or his rookie season). I expect Carl to have a great May and if he doesn’t then I honestly don’t know what to tell you.

Dan Uggla (Atl-2B) I expected big things from Uggla this season, but his April is making me look like a fantasy bum instead of a fantasy “expert.” Don’t lose hope Uggla has had 30 HR, 100 RBI seasons for the last 4 seasons, so I expect him to turn it on in April. Plus the whole Atlanta offense hasn’t clicked yet, and I fully expect them to be a potent offense this season. His line as of now is just .176 BA, 7 r, 4 HR, 7 rbi, 1 sb. Uggla should have a much better May so continue to be patient with him.

Yovani Gallardo (Mil-SP) Gallardo’s April has been pretty bad, 2 W, 4.88 era, 1.40 WHIP, 20 k’s. Considering he has been a fairly dependable fantasy asset the last several seasons. He is a double digit win guy with 200 plus K’s and right now his April numbers don’t look like he will get there, but The Brewers staff is starting to get healthy and I have a feeling the will feed off of each other’s success so expect Gallardo’s May to pay big dividends.

Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog, and spread the news to your fellow fantasy mates about the Hombre. If you can think of any 2010 April-May examples let me know in the comment section, or give any players who you think will bounce back after a poor April. Hope you enjoy the post, and I will be trying to do a weekly post now that the season has actually gotten into full swing.