Posts Tagged ‘NBA’

It has been a while, but the new NBA season is starting so I figured I would start up too. The new season brings lots of new questions to the table for a lot of teams, will the Clippers be the top of the West with Doc at the helm? Will the Bulls compete with a healthy Rose? Will the Thunder be a powerhouse with no “true” third option and a banged up/recovering Westbrook for the first few months? How bad will the Bobcats be this year? With a new season there are also fun questions in regard to fantasy players too, will Kyrie Irving take that next step and replace CP3 as the best PG in fantasy? Will Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio be top dogs in their respective positions now that they are fully healthy? What Dwight will we get in Houston? How good will Pau be with no Kobe? Can some of the rookies be fantasy relevant this season? Unfortunately I can’t give you answers to these questions we will all just have to watch the season unfold, but what I can do is give you the 10 guys I think will make a huge fantasy splash this season. Some of the guys will seem like pretty obvious guesses, but a few are going to be long shots that I think will be fantasy relevant or take that big step into the fantasy “must have” category. So without further ado my list of 10 guys who will surprise you this NBA season.

1) Kyrie Irving PG-Cle – So we all know that Irving is a beast, and he is entering his third season which is a typical year when guys take that BIG jump from good to great. He can take over a 4th quarter because of his quickness, and his ability to shoot an outside jumper. I think all of his % will be higher than they were last year (he has a better cast around him and they are all maturing which should mean smarter shots). I also think he could easily be a 24 pts, 4 reb, 8 ast, 2 stl guy this year. And with those numbers he will finish as one of the top 5 guys in fantasy basketball. If you have the chance to pull the trigger on him in the first round don’t be afraid!

2013-14 season projection- 48.3% FG, 87.6% FT, 1.9 3’s, 24.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.1 TO

2) Al Jefferson C-Cha – Al at one point in his career had a 23/11/2 season (2 being blks). That was with Min when he was the featured guy in the offense. He had plenty of chances in Utah, but it never seemed to quite fit for him there (he still put up really good numbers the last three years). I think Cha will look to Al early and often to wear down the interior of teams so that the young guards get a chance to have some freedom. I think we will see numbers similar to what he did back in 2008. Great value pick on a bad team, plus he doesn’t hurt you in any category as a big man!

2013-14 season projection- 50.4% FG, 77.5% FT, 0.1 3’s, 22.4 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.6 blk, 1.6 TO

3) Ricky Rubio PG-Min – Ricky should be 100% healthy after his ACL surgery the end of the 2011 season, and he has now been in the NBA for 2 full years (this being his third) which as I said about Kyrie that is usually when guys finally know what they can and can’t do against the competition. Rubio can’t shoot and I don’t think that will change anytime soon, but what he can do is rack up lots of ast, and get you a ton of stls. He is above elite in both categories so if this helps your strategy in building a team that tanks fg% he is a guy you can’t pass on. He will have a career year in all categories and Min should be really fun to watch.

2013-14 season projection- 41.5% FG, 80.8 FT%, 0.8 3’s, 12.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 12.3 ast, 2.6 stl, 0.3 blk, 3.2 TO

4) Paul Milsap PF-Atl – Paul had a career year in 2010 then has steadily declined since then. I think alot of that was due to the constant change in Utah, and the fact they had about 75 Big men on the roster last year trying to get minutes. Paul is one of those guys who will never overwhelm you with his numbers, but when you take a closer look he does a little bit of everything for you, and is a complement to any team strategy you guy with this season. I think him and Al Horford will make a great duo switching between the high and low post! Expect big things from Milsap this season.

2013-14 season projection- 52.5% FG, 77.7 % FT, 0.3 3’s, 16.2 Pts, 8.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 stl, 1.3 blk, 1.5 TO

5) Ersan Ilysova SF, PF-Mil – Ersan has had two good seasons the last two, he has shown flashes in both that point to him being able to be a big time player in the NBA. I think with some of the guys out of Mil that required a lot of shots Ersan and some of the other guys in Mil will get a chance to shine. He has shown he can reb at a high rate, and able to shoot around 50% from the field. I fully expect him to put together a season where he does both of those and some this season. Don’t expect Mil to be anything special in the NBA world but they have a couple of high quality fantasy guys. Ersan will be one of them.

2013-14 season projection- 48.9% FG, 82.0% FT, 1.5 3’s, 14.6 pts, 7.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.8 blk, 1.9 TO

6) Andrew Bynum C-Cle – Bynum hasn’t played a NBA game since the end of 2011, but reports are saying he is looking good, and is practicing at a fairly high level. He is only going to turn 27 this year so he isn’t old by any means. He was the 2nd best C when he played from 2009-2011. And I think if he plays at least 2/3 of the season he can put up the numbers to finish top 3 at the C position this year too. He seems motivated and has a good young Cle team around him. All he needs to do is get healthy and play some basketball. I would say expect around 55-60 games from Bynum this year.

2013-14 season projection- 57.4% FG, 69.8% FT, 0.0 3’s, 15.5 pts, 9.3 reb, 1.8 ast, 0.6 stl, 2.2 blk, 1.8 TO

7) Derrick Favors PF, C-Utah – I know preseason doesn’t mean much of anything, but Favors is rebounding the ball at an incredible rate this preseason. He was living in the shadow of Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap the last 3 years, but now will get to show everyone why he was highly touted coming out of college. He will finally get starters minutes, and he is someone I will be eyeing in every league this year. He can block shots, and will grab tons of rebounds for you. Don’t pass him up this year.

2013-14 season projection- 48.8% FG, 65.9% FT, 0.0 3’s, 15.2 pts, 11.6 reb, 1.5 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.9 blk, 2.2 TO

8) Evan Turner SG, SF-Phi – Evan has great ability and is entering his 4th season in the NBA. The 76ers won’t be good, but Evan is one of the few options on the team. He is going to take a dip in his FG% this season and in his TO, but since the team is letting him run the show this year all the other numbers are going to be fun to have. He is a guy that you can build your tank FG% team with. So don’t be afraid to pull the trigger because he will help you in a lot of categories!

2013-14 season projection- 40.8% FG, 77.5% FT, 1.1 3’s, 6.9 reb, 5.3 ast, 1.1 stl, 0.5 blk, 3.3 TO

9) Tiago Splitter C-SA – Tiago has quietly become a very effective C in the NBA and puts up quality numbers to make him relevant in almost every fantasy format. He has gotten better every year, and will continue to get more minutes to play as Tim gets more rest, and Pop begins to trust the young Center. I don’t think he is going to finish in the top 10 of Centers this year, but he is going to make himself a great 2nd or 3rd option on any team. He is a guy that is efficient and that is important in fantasy basketball.

2013-14 season projection- 58.9% FG, 74.5% FT, 0.0 3’s, 13.3 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.4 blk, 1.2 TO

10) Steven Adams C-OKC – Stevan won’t put up huge numbers because he won’t be the starter but I think Perk will get hurt at some point this year, and Adams will be forced to play big minutes for about a month to two months. He has shown he can put up some good “big” numbers in the preseason, and plays really aggressively on the offensive glass. He also can catch the ball (which Perk or Serge can’t do all that well on the inside…it hurts me everytime I see one of them get a BEAUTIFUL entry pass from KD or Russ, and it hits their chest and rolls down their body out of bounds) This is a total homer pick and I’m probably blinded by my optimism, but I think he has some good “tools” to be effective on the Thunder when given the opportunity to play.

2013-14 season projection- 55.8% FG, 65% FT, 0.0 3’s, 7.2 pts, 6.1 reb, 1.1 ast, 0.5 stl, 1.3 blk, 1.5 TO

Well there you have it my 10 guys who will surprise this season. Let me know who you think is going to exceed expectations this year in the comments, and don’t forget to “like” the Hombre on facebook or subscribe to the blog. I will be posting my 10 guys who I think will disappoint sometime this weekend. Good luck to you all this fantasy basketball season!

Now to all of the other players that were on the move last week for the trade deadline. I won’t be commenting on some of the trades that sent deep bench players that didn’t see any minutes so far this season, because they aren’t worth talking about in fantasy basketball.

Timofey Mosgov (Den-C)- Mosgov isn’t likely to see a whole lot of min with Denver this season. So his value takes a hit (even though he didn’t have that much to begin with).

Anthony Randolph (Min-PF, C)-In Randolph’s first 3 games with the Wolves he has seen just under 9 total min. So needless to say he is not worth owning. If he ever does get minutes he could be valuable for his ability to rebound and blk shots.

Corey Brewer (NYK-SG, SF)– Brewer has been cut from the knicks so depending on where he lands his value will be nothing. If he gets added to a contender his min will be for defense and spot up shooting (which he isn’t very good at).

Jeff Green (Bos-SF, PF)– Green’s value takes a major hit from a starter seeing 34+ min a night to a reserve spot probably seeing 17-22 min a night. This could improve his fg% seeing as he won’t be shooting as much. But overall he will take a hit in pts, reb, stl, and blk. So if you can deal him for someone now is the time.

Nenad Krstic (Bos-PF, C)– Krstic’s value actually increases because of this trade. He won’t be a focal point in the offense, but he is a capable offensive player. He was never really called on to score that often in OKC and he has a better pure PG to deliver him the ball in high % situations. So his scoring should raise some, and he will probably get more min with Bos.

Kendrick Perkins (OKC-C)– Perkins is injured and will be for at least another week. When he returns you can expect much of the same he has given you while in Boston. I do think he will get more reb, and blk because OKC’s team defense is slightly worse than Bos and we don’t have a great rebounders next to him. Could be a good chance for Perkins. Oh and this was just released, contract extension.

Nate Robinson (OKC-PG, SG)– Nate probably won’t see many minutes for the Thunder, but then again he had his first practice with the team today. I think there will be games when he sees some good playing time because he can be a great offensive spark. He wasn’t really worth owning before the trade and I don’t think he is worth owning much after the trade.

Shane Battier (Mem-SF)– Battier is simply a great team defender who can shoot the three. That is pretty much all he does. He will get you 1 blk, 1 stl, 2 ast, 5 reb, and about 8 pts. That is what he will do for you in a grizzlies uniform too.

Hasheem Thabeet and DeMarre Carrol (Hou)– neither of these two guys will be worth owning unless you are in a keeper format or a very deep league probably 16+. Then Thabeet is the only one worth owning simply because he is a 7 footer who could be good somewhere down the line.

Aaron Brooks (Pho-PG)-Brooks could be an interesting guy for the rest of the year. He is the backup PG for Nash, who has had minor bumps and bruises the last couple of years. So if Brooks gets to start the occasional game he will get 3’s ast, and pts, but will hurt you with his poor fg%. As of now Brooks is seeing less min than he was with the Rockets. So overall his value takes a small hit.

Goran Dragic (Hou-PG)-Dragic goes from being behind an old PG, to being the backup to a young PG. So his value takes a big hit. He was the starter at times to allow Nash to rest, but now with Lowry being the starter Dragic won’t see many spot starts. With decent min he can give you ast and some stls but he isn’t worth picking up at this point.

Baron Davis (Cle-PG)-Davis now takes the place as Mo Williams as a guy who I don’t think anyone should own at this point. He plays for a team that can’t do anything but rise to the 3rd overall pick, and Davis doesn’t really like playing unless his team is good. So drop him now and don’t worry about it.

Mo Williams (LAC-PG)-I still don’t like Mo very much, but he can run a decent PG. He will give you ast, stl, 3’s, but he is a high volume shooter and has a low fg%. I still wouldn’t want him on my team, but he is going to start on a high offensive team so if you need help in stl and ast he is a candidate for you. His value increases since he plays for a better team, oh and he gets to throw the ball to Blake Griffen…who doesn’t want to do that for their job?

If you have any specific fantasy sports questions regarding your team let me know and I will do my best to answer them. Don’t forget to subscribe so you can be notified when I put a new post up. Hope you have enjoyed my first 2 months of blogging.

All-In (These are the players that have been playing well the last 2 weeks and could benefit your team)

Ryan Anderson (Orl-PF, C) Ryan Anderson has been on a tear for the last several weeks, and in Yahoo formats he is only 52% owned. Look at his line the last two weeks. FG% .484, FT% .824, 3’s 3.5, Pts 16.8. Reb 7.1, ast 0.5, stl 0.4 Blk 1.1, TO 0.9. So at first glance he offers help in every category except ast and stl, but offers huge benefits in both 3’s and has a great turnover rate. Come on people he needs to be owned by 75% or more.

Rudy Fernadez (Por-SG) Rudy has been playing well for his 27 minutes a game. However he is owned by only 21% of leagues. So if you need a slight boost in 3’s, 1.5 a game, FT%, .882 a game, and Stl, 1.8 a game, then Rudy is your guy. However he will hurt your FG% considering he is shooting under .400 and only getting you 10 pts a game.

Mario will have plenty of chances at wide open 3's as the new starting PG

 

Mario Chalmers (Mia-PG) Mario was just named the starting PG again for Miami so his value gets a slight boost considering his Minutes per game are at 32 and might go up some. His value comes from his 3’s 2.8 a game, ast, 3.8 a game, and stl, 1.4. He doesn’t cripple you in any category considering he is a PG. You may be thinking 3.8 ast isn’t that good for a PG, and you are right, but he will probably get into the 4.5-5 range since he is the full time starter now. And ast is a difficult category to get help in at this point in the season, so every little bit helps.

Greg Monroe (Det-PF, C) Monroe has been playing really well since the middle of December. It seems like this rookie is getting used to the pro game, and he is finding his role on the Pistons. He will be a good addition to your team if you have no depth at your C position and will boost your FG%, .643 a game, your rebounds, 8 a game, and is averaging less than a turnover a game. His FT% and low blocks are the only thing holding him back from being a must add in every league. But he is getting playing time 32 min per game, and the Pistons have been playing pretty well as of late.

Fold (These are players who haven’t been doing so well lately and should be moved off of your team)

Roy Hibbert (Ind-C) Hibbert hasn’t even been close to averaging a double-double over the last month, and he is shooting a terrible .363 from the field. He is a center and is shooting under .400 and isn’t even shooting 3’s! He is only helping in Blks and he is only getting 1.2 a game. It is time to kiss Hibbert goodbye or at least try to see if someone else is willing to take him.

Gilbert Arenas (Orl-PG, SG) & Mo Williams (Cle-PG, SG) They both are still widely owned! For reasons to drop these guys see the post “first fantasy session.”

O.J. Mayo (Mem-SG) Mayo is having a tough year his minutes have dropped since last year. He is shooting under .400 and is only at 1.2 3’s a game. This is low for a shooter, but then again his ppg is at 11.6. If he is on your team you can find those stats on the waiver wire. It’s time to say goodbye to Mayo. Unless Memphis trades him he isn’t worth much right now on your team.

Check (these are guys who haven’t been playing that well, but shouldn’t be dropped yet. You should monitor their status over the next 4-5 games)

Green keep your eyes open so you will start hitting your shot.

Jason Terry (Dal-PG, SG) Terry is someone who always has his ups and downs so I’m not going to say drop him right now, but if he continues to play as poorly the next 10 days as he has the last month, then you should drop him. He is shooting under .400 and under .620 from the FT line, and is offering little to no help in the D stats. So he is more of a wait and see but he should be the next to go unless he picks up his game the next couple of games.

Jeff Green (OKC-SF, PF) Green was off to a career year for the first two months, but then something happened, he wasn’t making his shot. His minutes have actually decreased 3 min a game since November. This isn’t a huge decrease, but it could mean his minutes could continue to dip if he doesn’t find his shot. He is shooting poorly from both the field and the line. His 3’s are down and he isn’t even getting 5 reb a game anymore. It hurts me as a Thunder fan to say this, but Green is playing bad and watching him live you can tell he isn’t comfortable right now.

Leave a comment if you agree, disagree, or would like some help with another player not listed here. Enjoy and don’t forget to answer the poll offered under the poll page. Good luck to you fellow fantasy players!