Posts Tagged ‘Origen’

We are almost at the half way point of the Spring split. Each region is starting to sort itself out and we are able to see who will be contenders and pretenders for the rest of the split. After an abysmal week 3 I bounced back with another 8-4 week on my week 4 picks. Here are the results from last week followed by my week 5 picks!

Allin

 

All-in (Players that will over perform their projection)

Top- Hauntzer (31pts) TSM still hasn’t quite clicked like most would think they would start doing at this point. However they are still 5-3 and at the top of the standings. One of the main reasons has been Hauntzer’s play. I think 31 points should be a breeze for him to pass against the likes of Impulse and CLG

Jungle- Reignover (35pts) IMT plays C9 and Dig. One game should be a stomp and the other should be competitive (C9). Reignover has been absolutely dominant so far this season. He has helped IMT get every first blood to start the year, and he somehow has been putting pressure everywhere on the map while beating the opponent junglers in farm. Overall Reignover should get right around his average of 38 this week.

Mid- Jensen (26pts) Jensen has continued to have shining moments on the LCS stage, but he still has his moments where he is not able to create any pressure for his team. I think after last week’s performances that Jensen and C9 will continue to see success despite the tough match-ups with Liquid and Immortals. (note I wanted to put 3 other C9 players on this but felt that was too much)

ADC- Steelback (32pts) UoL is a team that is playing more consistently than anyone could have thought especially despite the revolving door at Jungle. Steelback is one of the reasons they have been so good. He is constantly making smart decisions and has been able to clean up team fights when needed. 38 points is my prediction for the week.

Support- Hybrid (21pts) Hybrid has been one of the best supports on one of the sneaky good teams. He is currently averaging over 15 points a game, and with matchups against H2k and Vit he will be needed to make more plays for emperor. I think he gets to the high 20’s maybe even 30 this week.

Team- G2 (25pts) G2 has been a huge surprise so far. I keep thinking this will be the week they slip up and fall to the middle of the pack, but they have put together 4 straight weeks of solid play. Even with tougher opponents this week I think they will surpass the 25 point barrier by a hair.

 

Fold (Players that will under perform their projection)

Top- Soaz (36pts) Soaz has been underwhelming so far this split, and his play has been one of the primary reasons Origen has struggled in my opinion. He isn’t even averaging 24 points a week, and I don’t forsee him turning it on this week against Vit and Splyce. I think he will start to regain his form, but probably closer to 28 points at the end of the week.

Jungle- Spirit (40pts) FNC has been good then terrible then good again. Spirit is a good jungler but he hasn’t been able to create very many plays for his team in the first 15 minutes of games. As a result FNC has been inconsistent. Expect another week right around 30 points for him.

Mid- GBM (42pts) GBM has one of the highest damage per minute in midlane this year in the LCS, but his team still struggles from time to time. Overall I think NRG is a mid tier NA team, and I don’t expect GBM to put up huge numbers against CLG. As a result 42 is a little to high.

ADC- For1vengre (40pts) Forg1ven might be mechanically the best ADC in the LCS. Watching him play makes me sad that I’m not even 50% as good at this game as he is, but with all of his abilities to dodge skillshots and apply pressure in lane he doesn’t always acquire great fantasy points. In fact, he only surpassed 40 points once this season (week 1).

Support- Adrian (42pts) Adrian plays the true support champions in Soraka and Janna, but at the same time he has such a huge impact on every game when he plays these “passive” champions. He is the highest scoring support this split, but I think 42 is a little to steep for him this week. Still will get in the mid 30’s so don’t bench him unless you have a great support on your bench.

Team- Origen (32pts) Origen has struggled to much to show consistency for me to think they can 2-0 Vit and Splyce, but if there was a week for them to do it this is the time to start getting hot. I think they will finish 1-1 again losing a close game to Vit and ending with 27 points.

 

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The group stages are over and it’s time for the Best of 5 Knockout Stage! The teams to open the Quarterfinals are EU’s Origen (4-2 and 2nd seed out of group D) and LMS’ Flash Wolves (4-2 and 1st seed out of group A), which will air Thursday, October 15th at 9am PST (5pm BST). This is likely the most competitive series, with both teams tied at 4-2 in reasonably competitive groups. Both teams played the longest games in the group stages (their game times averaged over 40 min) and because of that we could see fantasy points galore when these games are all said and done.

 

Let’s take a closer look at each team. What are each team’s win conditions? What will lead to their downfall? Who will be the fantasy studs to lead your team to success?

 

Flash Wolves – The Flash Wolves started out slow but finished strong, winning their last three games to close out their group as the #1 seed. They rode the damage of their Midlaner Maple and their ADC NL (who subbed in after Kramer played a subpar game against CLG). Those two not only played better than their competition in the group stages, but they also had the highest damage per minute of all ADCs and Midlaners. They are a team that is unafraid to fight, and when they fight, they have come out ahead because of their carries. Steak was thought to be the weak link before the group stages began, but he consistently broke even with the enemy top laner or even beat them. Steak has been the biggest surprise for the Flash Wolves. He finished with the highest kill participation of all top laners, and 3rd highest KDA of all top laners. However when you take a closer look it appears he still may be the area that Origen can capitalize on. His CS per min was one of the lowest of all top laners, and his opponent Soaz is one of the best (5th best as compared to 15th). Flash Wolves wins this match if they are able to pressure the map early on bot and mid so that the enemy team can’t destroy Steak and make FW pay. If Maple and NL are able to get a few items they will be able to out damage and outplay Origen in team fights. Flash Wolves will lose the match if Origen’s bot lane is able to beat FW bot lane in standard 2v2,allowing Steak to get bullied by Soaz. If they fall behind their team fighting play-style will be turned against them by a smart Origen. The players that will have the biggest fantasy impact for the Flash Wolves will be Karsa (Jungler), Maple (Mid), and NL (ADC).

 

Origen – Origen was one of the biggest surprises of the group stage. They were able to ride a 3-0 1st week to finish 4-2 and come out as the #2 seed of group D. Origen was able to win their games by allowing Soaz to put pressure on the map, while Niels and xPeke supported him with good wave clear and high damage. Origen also had some of the better drafts of all the teams at worlds. This will be the component that will help most in their best of 5 against the Flash Wolves. xPeke came out to prove to everyone that he wasn’t just a utility midlaner and the weakest link of Origen, leaving the group stages with the highest CS per minute of any player at Worlds.

Niels is the secret weapon of Origen…well at this point it isn’t a secret anymore. When Niels goes even or gets ahead of the enemy ADC, Origen knows exactly how to play around his strength and they began to pull ahead of their competitors. Niels finished with 31 kills (5th) and nearly an 85% kill participation (2nd highest of ADC).

Overall, Origen wins if Soaz can get a lead on Steak, and Niels and Mithy are able to break even or beat SwordArt and NL in the bot lane. If either or both of these things happens, Origen knows how to pressure the map and will force FW to make bad decisions or poor rotations. Origen will lose if they put too many resources trying to get Soaz ahead and Maple is able to bully xPeke out of the midlane. If Origen is forced to play reactively in the face of the Flash Wolves unrelenting pressure, potential mistakes will be their undoing. The players that will shine the most in this matchup are Niels (ADC), Mithy (Support) and Soaz (Top).

 

When the dust clears from this 5 game brawl, Origen will stand victorious. Origen will beat the Flash Wolves in the pick and ban phase, and the experience of Soaz, xPeke, Amazing, and Mithy will help them to keep a steady mind as Niels carries his team to victory.

 

Who do you think will win this Quarterfinal match-up? Who are your picks to carry your team to victory in your fantasy league? Let us know in the comments below or tweet us @fantasyriftcom with your predictions.

 

I took a few too many gambles in week 5 and it ended up resulting in a close week. My EU picks were the ones that really hurt, went 0-4 on them. I still ended up with a record just above .500. So just over the halfway mark, my current record stands at 26W-20L-1T (Liquid was a tie this week), which means I’m currently at a 55% winning percentage. That should be a manageable percentage to pull up to 60% in the final 4 weeks of the split. Here are the standings from last week which will be followed by the picks for this week.

All-in Projected Actual W or L
Gamsu 31 45.75 W
Kikis 34 24.78 L
Innox 33 34.47 W
Apollo 41 66.64 W
BunnyFuFu 26 41.7 W
Gravity 20 30 W
Fold Projected Actual W or L
Huni 35 42.95 L
Meteos 27 32.63 L
Nukeduck 39 46.77 L
Sneaky 39 23.96 W
Vander 36 41.72 L
Liquid 27 27 T
This Week W-L 6W-5L-1T Total W-L 26W-20L-1T

 

All-In (players that will score more than their projections)

Top – Odoamne (proj: 35pts) H2K had its first rough week last week, but it is more than likely just a blip on the radar. They get to rebound this week against Elements and UoL. Even if H2K plays poorly they will probably pull off a 2-0 week. Odoamne has been a consistent scorer so far this split. He has finished top 5 among all top laners in 3 weeks, and scored 34+ points every week but last week.

Jung – Amazing (proj: 34pts) Origen is primed for another big week; they face off against Elements and UoL. Amazing has been consistently good this split. He is the 2nd highest scoring jungler so far, averaging just shy of 23 points a game. All Origen players are a must start this week.

Mid – Fox (proj: 32pts) Something about SK’s last 2 weeks of play and their match ups against Roccat and Giants this week, make it seem like they could be primed to have a big week. Fox has performed well the last 2 weeks breaking 50+ in both weeks. With the opponents he faces this week it should result in another big week for Fox.

ADC – Forg1ven (proj: 30pts) Gambit is an interesting team. They have the players to be a top 4 team in EU, but they seem to play with little to no in-game strategy. They rely on their players ability to try and get them leads in games, and so far this split it hasn’t resulted in many wins. However, it isn’t wise to sleep on players that are good enough to break out especially given weaker opponents (CW and Roccat). Forg1ven has only broken the 30 point mark once this season, and this is going to be the 2nd time.

Supp – Smoothie (proj: 21pts) TDK finally got their Korean players back to NA, and they outplayed Dignitas. As a result, it would seem like they could be a team that makes a late run to get out of that bottom spot. Cloud9, Team8, and NME should be put on notice. TDK faces off against NME and TSM. They might go 1-1 or 0-2, but whatever their result Smoothie should get close to the 26-28 point range.

Team – SK (proj: 18pts) As said earlier, the recent play of SK should be encouraging for anyone willing to gamble on SK players. SK is averaging just under 11 points a game, and neither Giants or Roccat have shut down opposing teams of scoring fantasy points. SK will put up right around 24pts unless they go 2-0, which will put them right around the 30 mark.

 

Fold (players that will score less than their projections)

Top – Steve (proj: 33pts) Roccat looked pretty good last week going 2-0 and they face two teams they could beat this week (SK and Gambit). Last time Roccat had a week they were supposed to destroy the competition, they laid a bunch of abysmal fantasy performances. Roccat won’t fall on their face like they did week 4, but they also won’t destroy both SK and Gambit. Look for Steve to get right around the 30 point mark when the week is over.

Jung – Shook (proj: 26pts) CW have been a train wreck after their first week. They are losing new players every day it seems, and the team didn’t have good enough players to overcome this much change and discord. Shook is a good jungler, but there is no way he gets close to 20 points this week.

Mid – PowerofEvil (proj: 30pts) UoL used to be a team you could count on to make games go 45+ min and result in a fantasy scoring bloodbath, but they haven’t had that same magic this split. PowerofEvil is one of the better midlaners from a mechanical perspective, but that doesn’t always result in fantasy points (see Pobelter the 3 splits prior to this one). On top of UoL’s recent poor performances, they get to face off against Origen and H2K, and neither of those teams allow more than 15 pts a game to the enemy midlaner.

ADC – Piglet (proj: 42pts) Piglet has performed much better this split than last split, but his last two weeks he has put up 30 and 37 points. It seems like Liquid will continue their mild slump and as a result Piglet won’t be able to quite reach the 40 points mark.

Supp – Xpecial (proj: 42pts) Facing Cloud9 and Dig is neither a great week for match ups or an awful week. However, Liquid has been playing a little more up and down than they were to start the year. Xpecial and Piglet are both great players, but this week they will fall just short of their projections.

Team – Gambit (proj: 31pts) Gambit has the talent to make a late season run, but they have looked so drastically different from game to game it is to hard to see them as anything close to a safe bet. Use caution starting any of their players. Teams that go 2-0 get 30+ points, and Gambit plays too inconsistent to pull off a 2-0 week even with an easier schedule.

 

As always don’t forget to follow the blog, follow on Twitter, or “like” H2hhombre on Facebook so you can get updated as soon as a new post goes live. Who are your all-in and fold candidates for week 6? Let me know in the comments below!