Week 1 All-in or Fold

For those that have read my work the last two splits know exactly what to expect from these weekly posts, but for those of you who are new, let me explain what an All-in or Fold post will look like. I’m going to be taking one player from every position that I think is going to outscore their projection and one player from every position that I think will score below their projection. I’m using the projections that are used directly from fantasy LCS. The spring split last year I was 54% right on my picks (not good but better than coin toss) and last split I was just under 58%. If I continue on that pattern then this is the split I hit 62%. Let’s  jump into this week’s all-in and fold candidates.

 

All-in (players that will outscore their projections)

Top- OG Soaz (30pts) Origen is going to be the best team this split, because of talent and continuity. Even though they have some tougher matchups week 1 (H2K and FNC) I think they will perform well and Soaz should easily surpass his 30 point projection.

Jungle- TSM Svenskeren (33pts) I think TSM is going to struggle some this split to figure out how all of their pieces are going to work together and who is going to get the resources, but they have too much talent to ignore. Their matchups against TL and CLG should be wins for them, but I think the games will be longer games meaning more points for everyone

Mid- Vit Nukeduck (33pts) Nukeduck has burned me a few times the last two splits, but I think Vit is going to be a pretty solid team this split. If Nukeduck can play as well as he did the final weeks of summer split, then 33 points will be a breeze.

ADC- CLG Stixxay (33pts) I don’t think CLG will fall as much as some others are expecting. They have two new starters, but both have been with the team for over 6 months. I think Aphro will be able to set up Stixxay for plenty of opportunities.

Support- H2K Vander (24pts) Vander has the benefit of getting to play alongside of Forg1vengre, or he gets stuck playing next to him. Either way Forg1vengre is a great player, and Vander will help compliment his aggressive style. 24 should be a breeze for Vander.

Team- H2K (25 pts) H2K plays Giants and Origen. I expect them to beat Giants pretty easily then play Origen close until the end. I think they will be able to surpass their 25 point projection.

 

Fold (players that will underscore their projections)

Top- Roc Freddy122 (29pts) I think Freddy will end up with a good split overall, but I don’t think week 1 is the week he goes off. If he does beat his projection it will be Roccat funneling ganks, and resources to him. Either way I say fold him this week.

Jungle- FNC Spirit (32pts) FNC is giong to end up being a top 4 team in the EU LCS, but I think they will struggle some the first few weeks. With matchups against Origen and Vit I could see Spirit having a difficult start to his EU career.

Mid- Fox Froggen (40pts) I think Froggen will put up consistently strong fantasy numbers in the NA LCS, but 40 points might be a little to high for me. If echo fox can’t close out the game early on TiP this will be a hard one for me to win, but I see it being a stomp by Fox.

ADC- Gia Adryh (33pts) The new Giants face UoL and H2K in week 1 and unfortunately I think that will mean a lower total for the Giants players. The only player I would start week 1 would be Pepii but that is because you never know when he goes off for 40.

Support- IMT Adrian (39pts) Adrian is one of the best fantasy supports and will continue to be, but 39 is to high of a point total for me this week. I believe that top and mid will be a bigger focus for IMT so Turtle and Adrian won’t score quite as much as their projections.

Team- FNC (29pts) Typically teams go 2-0 when the get to the 28+ point range, and I don’t think FNC goes 2-0 this week. Therefore they are my fold candidate.

 

As always, don’t forget to follow the blog, follow me on twitter, or like me on facebook so you can be informed when a new article goes live. Good luck to everyone week 1!

 

Week 4 All-in or Fold

The season is 3 weeks in and there have been a lot of unexpected results so far. The surprises were Dig, Gravity, and Giants; and the disappointments, C9, Gambit, and Elements. First, let me apologize for not getting a week 3 All-in or Fold post up. I was out of town all week, and didn’t want to put something up that wasn’t thought out or post something that didn’t truly explain my picks. So here are the results from my week 2 picks and then my week 4 All-in or Fold candidates will follow.

All-in	Projected	Actual	W or L
Huni	36	41.42	W
IWillDominate	32	31.01	L
Fenix	37	18.61	L
Niels	39	79.21	W
Hylissang	29	45.92	W
FNC	32	38	W
Fold	Projected	Actual	W or L
Freddy122	31	11.47	W
Diamond	26	10.21	W
Slooshi8	35	17.87	W
CoreJJ	38	58.7	L
nRated	31	11.82	W
Gambit	22	12	W
This Week W-L	9W-3L	Total W-L	14W-10L

 

All-in (players that will score more than their projections)

Top – Odoamne (proj: 33pts) H2K has been dominant in almost every match-up. It doesn’t look like that is going to slow down in week 4 with match-ups against CW and Giants. Giants has surprised everyone so far, but H2K knows how to make teams play to their style, which is in your face and fast. Odoamne has been on a hot streak the last 2 weeks breaking the 40 point mark. Look for that trend to continue in week 4.

Jungle – Diamond (proj: 22pts) Gambit has now played 3 straight solid games, and this is about the time they started taking off last split. For those two reasons, plus the fact that they will be playing Giants and UoL this week, gives reason to think they could see high scoring weeks. Gambit could end up losing both games since Giants has look good and UoL can sometimes play like the best team in EU, but both games could go 45-50 minutes, which would allow lots of opportunities for teams to score points. Putting hope in Gambit is dangerous, but it is fun to live on the edge.

Mid – Betsy (proj: 24 pts) Pepii and Power are two great midlaners in EU, and they could very easily make Betsy struggle early. However, Betsy is more than capable of playing with both of those guys. See above for more analysis on Gambit’s schedule and why there are two Gambit players to go All-in on.

ADC – Altec (proj: 37pts) This was the hardest position to choose from. Altec was chosen because Gravity has played really well so far in the season. Gravity, because of Bunny, focuses on letting the ADC have room to score points (See Cop stats from last year). Also, it helps that they play Team 8 in the first match-up. Even though the choice was hard, Altec seems to be a fairly safe choice since he has broken the 40 point barrier every week.

Support – Mithy (proj: 30pts) Origen vs FNC is the game we have all been looking for and it should be a really fun game to watch. It could very easily turn into a blood bath, given how both teams like to play. As a result, both teams could have high scoring weeks. Also, Origen’s second matchup against Elements will allow Origen to pick up any points they don’t get against FNC. Once again, the match ups for the week factored heavily into this pick.

Team – Roccat (proj; 26pts) Roccat has managed two wins on the year, and they could pull off a 2-0 week this week. The change at ADC is a little concerning, but they face Elements and SK, the two worst teams in EU right now. Roccat is too inconsistent to be a great team overall, but the match-ups are too good to pass up. Don’t be surprised if they have a week like Gambit did last week. Another possible pick would be Impulse.

 

Fold (players that will score less than their projections)

Top – Vizicsacsi (proj: 43pts) UoL is one of the most fun teams in EU, but their inconsistency can be infuriating. They are always looking to fight which usually is great for fantasy because it means room for points to be scored. However, this split it seems like the other teams in EU have figured out some of their aggressive tactics and have adjusted to that play style. Even though UoL could very easily go 2-0 this week, they play SK and Gambit, Vizic hasn’t been the reason they have won any of their games. He has only broken 31 points once this year, and he only managed 34 that week.

Jungle – Airwaks (proj: 26pts) It seemed like CW and Airwaks had things figured out after week 1, but the last 4 games have told a different story. CW is still a team that relies on the other team to make lots of mistakes so that Freeze and Soren can get into late game carry mode, but more often than not, that won’t happen. Airwaks only scored a combined 28 points the last 2 weeks, and with H2K and FNC in their sights that total might only go up 10-15 more points. Fold Airwaks!

Mid – Ninja (proj: 35pts) Ninja is a mechanically great player, but in his first week back, he is having to play CLG in the first game. It doesn’t seem likely that he will score enough against Team 8 (with no Slooshi) to justify a 35 point projection. Obviously it is easy to pick a team that is 0-6 and say don’t play their players, but sometimes the most obvious pick is the one you should go for.

ADC – Adryh (proj: 37pts) The first 6 games show that Giants is a team that may have figured out how to play in the EU LCS, but for whatever reason it doesn’t seem to be sustainable. They face Gambit, which could very easily be a 50 min game, and H2K in week 4. Even though Adryh has been great after 30 min in games (21/2/22), the game against H2K should be a relatively short match-up; and because of that, Adryh will be just short of 37 points.

Support – Aphromoo (proj: 44pts) Aphromoo might be the most fun support to watch in the LCS, and his playstyle is excellent for fantasy. CLG’s matchups in week 4 (C9 and TDK) might not allow Aphro to make quite as many plays as he is used too. The game against TDK should be 30 min or less, and C9 vs CLG is usually a low scoring affair for all players (this is caused because both teams put more emphasis on towers and objectives than kills). Because of those factors, Aphro will put up a solid week from a support, but don’t expect a 40 point week from him.

Team – TSM (proj: 30pts) TSM hasn’t been their usual dominant self so far in the early season. They will end up the summer split as a top 3 team, but from a fantasy perspective their lack of consistency leaves room to worry. TSM has two sub 30 point weeks and one 40 point week. Their match-ups against Gravity and Liquid could go either way. Since those teams have all looked good this split, I’m not confident enough that TSM will go 2-0. No team has scored more than 30 points this split without going 2-0 on the week. Expect a 1-1 week from TSM and around 26 points.

As always don’t forget to  follow the blog, follow on Twitter, or “like” H2hhombre on Facebook so you can get updated as soon as a new post goes live.Who are your All-in or Fold picks for week 4? Let me know in the comments below.

Fantasy LCS Team Rankings 2015 Summer Split

The final rankings post for the Summer Split. Thanks again for all the support, feedback, and views to the blog. I really appreciate it. All my positional rankings are live so you can click on the name to go to the homepage, or click on fantasy league of legends to the left and it will pull them up also. I will do a numerical list of how I think the teams will finish the year from a fantasy point perspective, then a tier list after.

1. Gambit

2. Fanatic

3. Unicorns of Love

4. Team Solo Mid

5. H2K

6. TiP

7. CLG

8. Liquid

9. C9

10. Origen

11. Copenhagen Wolves

12. Team 8

13. SK Gaming

14. Elements

15. Gravity

16. Roccat

17. Dignitas

18. Giants

19. NME

20. TDK

 

1-5 There will be chunks of EU teams and chunks of NA teams. EU teams usually score more points because of the style of games they play, and on average they were about 3 min longer, which will result in an extra baron and dragon in a game. Which again is more points. These 5 are the safest bets in terms of teams. I really like UoL in this split, I will be going for a lot of their players. TSM is the only NA team in the top because their consistency and team-fighting is one of the best in the West.

6-11 These are the next best and most are in NA. I put Origen and CW in this group because of the EU factor that might propel them over a few of the NA teams. All 4 of the NA teams in this chunk should be competitive in every single game this year, which should mean longer games and more points scored. If I had to pick just one from this group it would be CLG because they are the most objective focused of the group. 2nd would be Impulse because they play all-in all the time which should result in lots of advantages on the map.

12-17 These are the teams that will have a few good weeks and a few bad weeks. I would say these are the best to play on good match-up weeks.

18-20 I hope I’m wrong on some of my bottom 4 of my rankings otherwise it is going to be a LONG season for NME, TDK, and Giants. If you are a fan of them I apologize for putting them in the cellar on pretty much every rankings list, but sometimes numbers don’t lie.

 

Now that the rankings are done, I will be working on my first all-in or fold post. Expect it to be up sometime Monday evening or Tuesday. As always don’t forget to subscribe, follow on facebook, or follow on twitter to get notifications when a new post goes live. I would love to see who you all drafted let me know in the comments below!