Here is my personal take on 1B this year. 1B is a really deep position so you would be able to get top players in other positions and still get a good value 1B. So don’t be afraid to pass up on the first 5 or 6 names on the list. Or take 2 and have a top 1B and a solid utility, 1B/3B player. Depending on your league settings.
1) Albert Pujols (StL-1B)-Let’s look at his worst numbers in his career. avg .312, r 99, hr 32, rbi 103, and sb 1. Now his best in each category is, avg .359, r 137, hr 49, rbi 137, sb 16. You can expect his numbers to fall anywhere in between those two lines I showed, oh and he has played 143 or more games every year. He is the extreme model of consistency and his weakest category sb is a strength in comparison to other 1B. No brainer here, best 1B in the real world and in the fantasy world. Also, he wants to prove he is worth the 300 million he may look for at season’s end!
2011 prediction: .328 avg, 114 r, 41 hr, 126 rbi, sb 11.
2) Miguel Cabrera (Det-1B)-Miguel is also a stud and has shown consistency in his stats he puts up every year. His avg line for his career is .313 avg, 101 r, 34 hr, 120 rbi, 4 sb. So he puts up big numbers in every category except sb, but as I said earlier no 1B is going to wow you with his steal numbers. All Miguel has to do is continue to do what he has done the last 6 years and he will be a huge help to your team. He also has played 150+ games every year.
2011 prediction: .319 avg, 102 r, 35 hr, 117 rbi, 3 sb
3) Adrian Gonzalez (Bos-1B)-It was a toss up between him and Votto, but I went with Adrian because of new stadium (more hitter friendly then Petco) and better supporting cast than in previous years. He has produced some great seasons with the Padres so I am expecting HUGE numbers from him with the Red Sox. Possibly pushing to finish ahead of Miguel by season’s end. Plus Adrian has only missed 11 games since being a starter in 2006.
2011 prediction: .303 avg, 98 r, 36 hr, 121 rbi, 1 sb
4) Joey Votto (Cin-1B)-Votto exploded last year reaching his potential that most hoped he would find. He was in the hunt for the triple crown last year, and statistically had just as good of a season as Pujols, maybe even a little better. I think he will have another good year, but I see a slight dip in his numbers. It could be because I’m a Cardinal fan and need him to play worse so the Reds do worse, or because usually after a big year the player always comes down slightly the next.
2011 prediction: .321 avg, 97 r, 31 hr, 101 rbi, 8 sb
5) Prince Fielder (Mil-1B)-He is in a contract year and has showed signs of being great. Prince had a big year two years ago, down year last year. So the odds say he will have another good year plus he is in a contract year. He had 50 bombs his third season so he has the potential to drop a couple of homers. His avg has never been over .300. So don’t expect that, but did I mention that he is in a contract year and has reason to put it all together this year.
2011 prediction: .292 avg, 98 r, 44 hr, 109 rbi, 2 sb
6) Mark Teixeira (NYY-1B)-The next three guys could probably be intertwined with one another but I put Tex here because I think he is do for a big season. He is on the back end of usual hitter’s primes (age 30 will be 31 as the season starts) He is a slow starter so be prepared to have him doing pretty much nothing for you in April and most of May, but despite those awful starts he always has he puts up great numbers.
2011 prediction: 284 avg, 99 r, 35 hr, 113 rbi, 0 sb
7) Kevin Youkilis (Bos-1B)-Some hate him some love him, but he puts up numbers. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in the lineup can only help him more, and Pedoria and Ellsbury should be healthier this year than last. The only thing holding Youk from a good fantasy season is injuries. Hasn’t ever played more than 147 games in a season.
2011 prediction: .303 avg, 88 r, 25 hr, 97 rbi, 6 sb
8) Ryan Howard (Phi-1B)-I can’t stand Howard and have never owned him in any of the teams I have ever owned. Despite that he gets huge HR numbers and drives in lots of runs. He usually has big Septembers so that is a plus with him. Good for playoff baseball in your fantasy league. His avg. can be a hindrince to your team so just make up for it in other positions or throw it and get a lot of other low avg big hr, rbi guys(Dan Uggla, Mrak Reynolds, and Chris Young).
2011 prediction: .274 avg, 98 r, 42 hr, 128 rbi, 1 sb
9) Justin Morneau (Min-1B)-I ranked Morneau higher than ESPN and yahoo because usually he finishes in the top 7 of 1B at seasons end. If the concussion stuff he struggled with last year is finally resolved I expect Morneau to be better then 9 at 1B, but there is never a gurantee when talking about concussions. You can expect huge numbers in the first half of the season from Justin but he has always cooled off some after July. Hope he is healthy again because he is a fun guy to root for.
2011 prediction: .289 avg, 90 r, 30 hr, 108 rbi, 0 sb
10) Adam Dunn (ChW-1B)-Dunn is an interesting one he is a lot like Howard in the fact that he will get you big power numbers but could possibly kill your avg. He is in a new city with a better lineup than he has had in a while so who knows where Dunn could end up. He did have 6 straight 40 HR years with the reds and 38 the last two years with the Nats.
2011 prediction: .254 avg, 94 r, 41 hr, 106 rbi, 0 sb
11) Buster Posey (SF-C, 1B)-Buster stormed the league last year with a great 100 games in his rookie year. Sophomore slump is always a possibility, but he has good plate discipline so his numbers should continue to be what they are. Dual position avaliability makes him more useful in any fantasy format. So his true value is his C rather than his 1B.
2011 prediction: .301 avg, 83 r, 24 hr, 91 rbi, 2 sb
12) Kendry Morales (LAA-1B)-Morales was robbed last year with a freak leg break. He is one of those quiet fantasy producers and will probably do better then all of the “experts” including myself have him ranked, but he may not be the same after that leg injury. He was on pace to be top 5 at 1B last season when he went out. So that is the potential you get with Morales.
2011 prediction: .291 avg, 82 r, 29 hr, 93 rbi, 0 sb
| My Rankings | ESPN Rankings | Yahoo! Rankings | CBS sports |
|
Albert Pujols |
1 |
1 | 1 |
|
Miguel Cabrera |
2 | 2 |
2 |
|
Adrian Gonzalez |
4 | 4 |
5 |
|
Joey Votto |
3 | 3 |
3 |
|
Prince Fielder |
7 | 6 |
6 |
|
Mark Teixeira |
6 | 7 | 4 |
|
Kevin Youkilis |
5 | 8 |
8 |
|
Ryan Howard |
8 |
5 |
7 |
|
Justin Morneau |
11 | 14 | 10 |
|
Adam Dunn |
9 | 9 |
12 |
| Buster Posey | 10 | 10 |
9 |
| Kendry Morales | 12 | 12 |
11 |
If you have any questions or disagreements regarding my rankings leave a comment. Also, leave your own predictions for a 1B the year. 2B are coming tomorrow.
H2H Hombre 